Saturday, March 25, 2006

A Challenge Answered

My snarky remarks in regard to JR's keepers led him to call me a "biatch" and telling me to do a preview. Since he so thoroughly pantsed me in the grammar department, I must oblige. Unlike traditional rankings, I will instead try to predict the future, one category at a time. Here my projected finishes in each of our 10 scoring categories, based on rosters as of 3/25.

Runs Scored

1. Drew - This is a really good offense. Best IF in the league.
2. Eli - This team will score a lot. Probably eventually more than Drew, but not as is
3. Lincoln - Scott Podsednik scored fewer runs (80 in 162 games) than Placido Polanco in 2005. That's how you spark an offense, apparently.
4. JR - Mr. Radcliffe will think this (and all of his other) rankings are too low. He has a case here.
5. Ed - Rooting for the Rangers very hard
6. Viano - Peralta will see a spike; Joe Mauer could too
7. Baron - Two good leadoff men and Jason Bay lead the way
8. Tomke - Will want to get to know Chase Utley, as Jimmy Rollins' runs rely on him a good deal
9. Champ - 3 key OFs (Dye, Mench, Green) all get big at-bats and small run totals
10. Stem - No leadoff types that will constantly score runs. Depends on Bonds

Home Runs

1. JR - Lee, Jones set for a drop. Will Miggy Cabrera see pitches? Who cares- you'd envy his sluggers.
2. Drew - Soriano's numbers will dip, but getting Konerko where they did was a coup
3. Eli - Switching SS from Tejada to Reyes reason for significant drop
4. Viano - A-Rod, A-Dunn and Utley are tremedous. What will Casey Kotchman do?
5. Ed - Tex is a stud, Lee, Burrell, Cantu a good support in this category
6. Lincoln - Three machines, then...not so much
7. Champ - Needs more OF pop. Would be higher if they could play all of their 1B
8. Stem - Helton no longer a 40 HR guy. Depends a lot on Bonds.
9. Baron - Mike Jacobs's HR rate projects him for over 60 homers
10. Tomke - Like Dave, this team has puny arms.

Runs Batted In

1. Lincoln - OrtizPujolsOrtizPujolsOrtizPujolsOrtizPujolsOrtizPujols
2. Ed - Cantu is key here, providing great production from 2B spot
3. JR - I love Travis Hafner.
4. Eli - Could be much higher, pending Ryan Howard's response to a full-time role
5. Drew - Best two RBI men are 'roided up Yankees. How does Drew sleep at night?
6. Viano - Cliff Floyd sniffing 100 again? I don't see it.
7. Champ - Deep in competent RBI guys, but only two big timers; one of whom is on the bench
8. Baron - Morgan Ensberg is key here
9. Stem - Ramirez, Chavez= machines. A lot will depend on Bonds.
10. Tomke - No one broke 90 last year. Morneau, Fielder- possible future machines, but long shots for this year.

Stolen Bases

1. Drew - Abreu, Soriano, Furcal will all run wild
2. Eli - Reyes, Crawford = best 1-2 in the VUFSA. Will Joey Gathright be a factor?
3. JR - Juan Pierre is the clear leader, should get another 60 from his IF
4. Lincoln - Needs spots for Roberts, Roberts to complement Pods
5. Ed- Had Pierre, Reyes and Figgins last year. This year? Willy Tavares.
6. Baron - Chone Figgins is great. I fucking hate Baron for taking him from me, sort of.
7. Tomke - New add Ichiro a key pickup to complement Rollins
8. Viano - Better if Ryan Freel finds a starting spot
9. Stem - Julio Lugo, and that's it.
10. Champ - A healthy Torii Hunter will help, but no one on this roster should break 30

On Base Average

1. Drew - Soriano sucks, but Giles and Giambi over .400
2. Stem - Helton, Berkman, Bonds all over .400
3. Lincoln - Chipper Jones is really good at this
4. Viano - Adam Dunn's value skyrockets with the rule change
5. JR - Sluggers are great, others are adequate
6. Eli - Misses Jason Bay- Jose Reyes OBA is pitiful.
7. Baron - Sluggers Bay, Jacobs and Ensberg project well here. Tejada is average
8. Ed - CaLee, Cantu, Tavares all leave much to be desired.
9. Champ - Mench, Dye, Blalock and Hunter are all free swingers
10. Tomke - Best OBPers are worst players (Overbay, Shelton)

Wins

1. JR - JR thinks he's ranked too low in this category
2. Viano - So. Many. Starters.
3. Ed - Let's get this out of the way: Ed's rotation needs to stay healthy
4. Tomke - Beckett and Bondo will be in the 14-17 range
5. Stem - 38 wins from Carpenter + Leiber unlikely; Schmidt will improve upon 2005
6. Lincoln - Jon Garland wont' hit 18 again
7. Champ - No 22 from Dontrelle; Mussina and Clement look d-u-n.
8. Drew - Kenny Rogers not due for another 14 wins in Detroit
9. Eli - Even on a division winner, Jake Peavy only won 14 games.
10. Baron - Able to assemble some good arms, but not good enough.

Saves

1. Viano - Top 3 returning closers, 2 of which are young risers
2. Ed - Gap between 1 and 2: small. Between 2 and 3 is much bigger
3. Drew - Will rotate no-namers daily to scrounge up SVs
4. Eli - Going with four closers, mostly unproven
5. Lincoln - I love Joe Borowski so much. Seriously.
6. Stem - Two good ones is still just two good ones
7. Tomke - Two young, good ones is still just two young, good closers
8. JR - Brad Lidge! That's all. Literally
9. Baron - Two best are from awful teams
10. Champ - Closers notched a total of 14 saves last season. Needs Gagne to save about 100 alone.

Strikeouts

1. Ed - Carrie Wood is the wild card here, but even without her is a good bet for #1.
2. JR - Smoltz, Johnson; Old, but very good at Ks.
3. Eli - Felix Hernandez and Jake Peavy are about all you can ask for in K/IP
4. Lincoln - Brett Myers set to break out here
5. Viano - Ben Sheets will need to be healthy for this team to be in the top half
6. Stem - No one will domniate here
7. Champ - 3 aces are far from being known as strikeout pitchers
8. Tomke - Without Roger, it's Pedro and no one else
9. Drew - Desperately needs Curt Schilling to regain form. How does Drew sleep at night?
10. Baron - Not much here

ERA

1. JR - Kevin Millwood is due for a major raise (in ERA) in Arlington. Still, really good staff
2. Eli - Even the mostly sucky Derek Lowe has a sub-4 ERA
3. Ed - Livan Hernandez needs to realize he pitches in a giant ballpark
4. Lincoln - Solid.
5. Baron - Is Matt Cain real?
6. Stem - Hudson and Schmidt's impending revivals could move them up a bit
7. Tomke - Hinges upon Clemens. Bondo, ESantana are 4+ guys
8. Drew - Rotating closers usually give up a few runs
9. Champ - Quite a few AL arms here
10. Viano - Will get a lot of 8-6 decisions in the win column

WHIP

1. Ed - You want to be Johan Santana so bad, you ache
2. JR - Roy Halladay way ahead of a solid crew at WHIP
3. Lincoln - Rivera is so good at WHIP, it's not fair
4. Eli - Why do all his RPs look like big walkers to me?
5. Viano - Ace starters actually better than ace relievers here
6. Tomke - Chein-Ming Wang, motherfuckers
7. Drew - Mulder, Westbrook a little high here for 2nd tier starters
8. Champ - Clement known for long innings
9. Stem - Liriano will be a beast in this category
10. Baron- How the hell am I supposed to project WHIP, anyway?

Point Projections:

JR: 80. He's got a good team, but he won't get 80 out of 100. I should change some things to knock it down, but i've been writing long enough.
Ed: 75. Now I'm sure I made some mistakes.
Eli: 71. Great offense, some questions on the pitching staff. I didn't pick him to lead the league in anything? I'm an idiot. I still think this is the league's best team.
Lincoln: 71. This snuck up on me too. No lower than 6th in any spot. Drew drafted better for Lincoln than he did himself.
Drew: 68. Three 1sts in offense, but pitching is suspect to me.
Viano: 59. All over the place in pitching categories. Solid offensively.
Stem: 39. Apparently, this is where we draw the line for contention.
Tomke: 33. Eat it, Baron
Baron: 29. Get some pitching, son
Champ: 27. Doesn't have a single category likely to excel in.

5 comments:

JR said...

This is the best preview I've ever read, honestly. And not just because I'm at the top.

Okay, primarily because I'm at the top.

But I really enjoyed this, seriously. I do think you rated me too low in wins.

Anonymous said...

I think I'll rank higher in some of the pitching categories, at least.

-Tomke

Anonymous said...

What I think might have been an interesting category, though difficultly pointed, would have been the bench. Surely no one will go through the season without injury and that's where depth comes into play. Depth also helps make those mid season trades to patch a hole. So while those guys aren't going to help win any of these preview categories directly their impact still can't go unnoticed once the year begins.

-Drew

JR said...

Don't listen to Drew. The formula is flawless as is.

Eli said...

Good preview.

Bob Wickman for Richie Sexson. Oh, and a ninth rounder.