Baseball Projections

I'm tweaking the formula this year for my projected baseball standings. Instead of opening up everyone's team page and looking at last year's stats, I'm looking into the future and factoring in age, potential and consistency. Neither injuries nor trades nor bench players really play a factor here. There's some stuff I don't agree with- but I'm sticking to the scientific formula (adding) that I decided on before the draft.

Runs:

1. Schillinger. This hinges on how quickly Rafael Furcal gets back onto the field, but still has six guys that should cross 100 times.
2. Gieryna. If Jose Reyes can hold his OBA gains, he'll be a monster in this category- may lead this league.
3. Wolf. Grady Sizemore led the league in runs scored last year, and is a great start. Victor Martinez provides a boost from the C position. The offenses Michael Young, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome will provide them all with a number of opportunities.
4. Tomke. Speedsters Ichiro and Jimmy Rollins are the main reason for the lofty ranking, and Rickie Weeks has the potential to score 100 runs- and probably would if his team wasn't boring and irrelevant.
5. Brendel. The middle of the pack is just about right, with no overwhelming run scorers but no weaknesses either. Julio Lugo's average offensive ability is where the potential to move up is. If Lugo can take advantage of batting at the top of the Red Sock lineup, he could hit 100 and move Baron up a few slots.
6. Radcliffe. The injury to Carlos Quentin clouds things, as does the effeciency of the Royal offense and it's impact on Mark Teahan. Alfonso Soriano and Johnny Damon are locks for 110+ this season.
7. Whitlock. Derek Jeter is a sure 120 runs or so, while Garrett Atkins and Hanley Ramirez will excel as well. Outside of those three, no one else is a sure thing to cross 90 times this season.
8. Souzek. David Ortiz, Vlad Guererro and Mark Teixeira will set the pace in this category, just like every other one. Vernon Wells and Bill Hall will also fare well.
9. Viano. In my opinion, Viano saw how little offense was really out there in the draft, and shifted his focus to pitching, hence 4 straight arms at one point. As a result, had to fill in the holes with some damaged parts from middling offenses (Baldelli, D. Roberts, F. Lopez) and the runs will reflect that.
10. Stem. Will get punished in this post for having a lot of youngsters who I can't really project. How good will a middle infield of Stephen Drew and Josh Barfield be? I can only be cautious when predicting those two, leading to a low cumulative total.

Home Runs

1. Gieryna. When you have the reigning home run champ, a guy who made a run at 60, that's a start. After that, you have an automatic 40 from Manny and 35 from Beltran and Cabrera each. Barry Bonds' contribution to this category is interesting, and Ian Kinsler's 20 potential knocks is a great advantage as well.
2. Schillinger. Raised up considerably with the Jones/Young deal, adding almost 20 homers to the team total. Watch out for Josh Willingham, who has 25 HR potential this year. Michael Barrett provides a nice boost of maybe 20 from the catcher position.
3. Souzek. Could get 130 from just three players. Bill Hall will probably lead all players with SS eligibility in HRs, which is a great boost. Vernon Wells will make a run at 30 again. Mike Piazza is a wild-card, as his DHing may yield fantastic power numbers from the catcher spot.
4. Brendel. Pushed into the top half because of the addition of Richie Sexson's 30+ HRs from the UTIL spot. Matt Holliday should come close to 40 dingers, while Carlos Delgado and Morgan Ensberg are solid bets for 30.
5. Radcliffe. Derrek Lee is going to come back and have a monster season this year, and when you match him with sluggers like Soriano and Hafner, it's a wonder that JR doesn't move up at all. 75% of the outfield looks like it has a 20 HR ceiling this year, and that brings down the category. Teahan could break that mold, as soon as he's OF eligible.
6. Wolf. Troy Glaus and Jim Thome's health will make the difference in this category. Nick Swisher should probably chip in 30+. Todd Helton is a wild card, and could move the team up two points with a decent season.
7. Stem. Getting Adam Dunn in the first round will offset the hilarious lack of pop from Juan Pierre. Aramis Ramirez are Lance Berkman sure things, but watch out for Adam LaRoche, who quietly knocked out 32 homers last season.
8. Viano. Jason Giambi is the perfect utility player for this team, as his pop is much needed. I'm suprised that a team with a powerful 2B and guys like Konerko and Giambi is so low, but Dave Roberts and his 3 projected homers coupled with Felipe Lopez' move to RFK can really deflate a team.
9. Whitlock. A breakout for Prince Fielder and good health from Gary Sheffield would rocket this team up the board for sure, but this team lacks pop. Keep in mind, 50% of the keepers on this squad were middle infielders.
10. Tomke. Justin Morneau is a lock for 30, and he could get to 35 easily. Carlos Lee is the key here- playing park with a joke of a left field fence he could hit 40 dingers for the first time in his career. Could move up a couple spots if Frank Thomas occupies the UTIL spot over Howie Kendrick. (I simulated lineups based on draft order, hence the Kendrick inclusion over Thomas.)

Runs Batted In

1. Gieryna. Howard, Manny and Cabrera lead the way, of course, but it's the solid RBI "ability" of Raul Ibanez and Brian McCann are what sets the team apart here.
2. Schillinger. Albert Pujols and A-Rod reign supreme, while three other guys should hit the 100 RBI mark.
3. Brendel. Projections of Figgins and Lugo hold back what is an otherwise outstanding run producing core of Holliday, Sexson, Delgado and Matsui. Miguel Tejada will probably lead all SS in RBI, so that's another bonus.
4. Souzek. I still love Mark Teixeira, so I'll go out on a limb and say he leads the league in RBI this year. He's fantastic. Outside of that, Papi, Vlad etc... No suprises here.
5. Viano. Watch for Alex Rios in this category, as he has a shot at 100 this season. Outside of that, keep an eye on Joe Crede and Jeff Francour, who's power numbers need to be there as their combined on-base averages are less than .600.
6. Whitlock. The guys who lack in big time homer numbers do hold their own in RBI- notably Magglio Ordonez and Nick Markakis. Garrett Atkins (who inexplicable hasn't been mentioned yet) is a fabulous person who will surpass 100 RBI.
7. Tomke. Bobby Abreu is the guy to keep an eye on in this category, as he should hit 100 RBI easily with the Yankee lineup as is. Scott Rolen, if healthy, is capable of big RBI numbers as well. If Rolen is healthy, Dave could move into the top 5.
8. Radcliffe. Despite the Hafner/Lee powerhouse, there are a lot of power positions that lack RBI opps, such as Damon and Quentin in the OF. Chipper Jones is no longer the run producer he once was, and 3B is now a big time position for RBI in the league.
9. Wolf. In order to get any steals into the lineup, Drew employs two guys who may not combine for 80 driven in. The lack of pop between Ryan Freel and Willy Tavares weighs down the Wolfman's power categories.
10. Stem. Pierre and Rowand are poor RBI men, and Josh Barfield doesn't project to be a middle of the order guy either. Ramirez is really good, so is Berkman, but it's not enough.

Stolen Bases

1. Tomke. Had a nice start with Ichiro, Abreu and Rollins in the keeper stable, but vaulted to the top by adding Weeks, Crisp and even Kendrick- all of whom should swipe 20+.
2. Gieryna. Didn't really address steals in the draft, allowing Dave to run past him. Still, 120+ coming from Reyes/Crawford, so the extras from Beltran and Kinsler are just a bonus.
3. Souzek. Mike Cameron is the great add to this club, as he's a legitimate threat for 20-20. Korey Patterson and Brandon Phillips will carry this category, and need to have great stealing seasons with their pitiful oba.
4. Brendel. Overcoming Figgins' injury is key- as he's penciled in for 40% of the team's steals right now. Torii Hunter and Julio Lugo should pick up some slack, but if Figgy misses too much time, Baron's headed to the basement.
5. Stem. Juan Pierre's name has come up a lot- but this time it's valid. He's a monster in this category and will account for over half the team's steals, because only Barfield and maybe Rowand are threats to run. Eric Byrnes getting a spot in the lineup would help this category.
6. Schillinger. Went for steals early, as a way of avoiding the guys who can only run. Brian Roberts and the now-injured Rafael Furcal can both steal 30, and they won't kill you anywhere else. David Wright and Jason Bay both run, which is a nice boost.
7. Viano. Like Drew, counting on one specialist to boost this category. Where he differs is that he'll get near 20 apeice from Utley, Rios, Baldelli and Lopez. A lot of guys chip in and make up for a combined zero from Giambi, Konerko and Crede.
8. Whitlock. Entire steal total is based off of keepers- didn't draft a guy that will swipe double digits. Could still compete if HanRam creeps up on 60, but he's got a sophomore slump feel to him.
9. Radcliffe. Alfonso Soriano is the top option here, and Johnny Damon and Derrek Lee have shots at hitting 20 steals, but that's all. Carlos Guillen will chip in 10-15, but Uggla (a premier SB position) provides none. A lot of teams will get 8-12 from a variety of positions to give them an overall boost- this team has a lot of guys that won't reach 4.
10. Wolf. The aforementioned slap hitters Freel and Tavares buoy this whole category, but are they enough? Scotty Pods is on the bench and he can run, but his inclusion in the lineup would take out a far superior player like Dye, Swisher or Thome.

On-Base Average

(This is where the projecting gets a little tricky- as I couldn't find a fair way to weigh the players on a team. Therefore, Barry Bonds' .440 in 375 ABs counts the same as Juan Pierre's 325 in 700.)

1. Gieryna. Bonds sets the team apart. Besides him, however, there are three others (Howard, Cabrera and Manny) who should be over the .400 mark. Reyes/Crawford, while improved, are the anchors here.
2. Wolf. Helton and Thome are the pacesetters, while no one sticks out as a weakness. People will praise Nick Swisher for his on-base skills because he's an Athletic, but in reality his OBA is only really good when compared to his Batting Average. His on-base skills are about 20 points above league average, but he's not technically a stud in the last column.
3. Brendel. Torii Hunter is the anchor (in a bad way) here, but benchmate Brian Giles excels in this area. If Giles gets some PT with Figgins out or when Hunter gets hurt, it'll give a nice oba boost to Baron.
4. Schillinger. Pat Burrell is the suprise guy here, a guy who's on base at a 38% clip. There isn't really anyone in the lineup now that will weigh down the team, unless Craig Monroe is forced into action.
5. Radcliffe. Soriano is terrible here, but his other categories make up for it. Dan Uggla and Johnny Estrada also weigh down what is otherwise a very good on-base team.
6. Whitlock. Delmon Young and Hanley Ramirez didn't walk into the major leagues. No one figures to be above .400, though Atkins and Jeter will be in the upper quarter of .300.
7. Tomke. Bobby Abreu is the sole outlier in the linuep. Another category where Frank Thomas provides a tremendous leap- could mean up to 5 net points added to the oba over Kendrick.
8. Souzek. As mentioned earlier, had to get steals at the expense of getting on base, as Patterson and Philips are murder in this category. Bill Hall isn't too useful here either.
9. Stem. Just one outlier on the positive side won't counter a bunch of below average numbers.
10. Viano. Jeff Francour is pitiful. Joe Crede isn't that good either. Rocco Baldelli is incrementally better than either. Those are hard OBAs to overcome, especially since each of them should be in the lineup every day.

Wins

1. Viano. With as many solid starters that are on this team, Andy's got a head start on the cumulative categories. Jon Garland is a standout in wins despite mixed results each outing.
2. Radcliffe. Roy Halladay, coupled with a rebound from Jake Peavy is the 2nd best 1-2 punch in the league. Injured now Chien-Min Wang and future injured Kelvim Escobar will contribute mightily when healthy.
3. Stem. Chris Carpenter and Derek Lowe play on good teams and get good results. John Smoltz is a wild-card here, as no one seems to know how good the Braves are.
4. Gieryna. Both Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt seem to find their way to a good win total, while Greg Maddux also seems to rack up a mess of wins, no matter what. Adam Loewen needs to add in a few from a dismal Oriole team to push the club into the top third.
5. Souzek. Adam Wainwright is the wild card here, he could get up to 15 wins if the situation allows. Oustide of that, C.C Sabathia will rack them up on an obscenely talented Indian team and Dontrelle Willis is always good in odd numbered years.
6. Brendel. Only six starters hurts the projection, but no one should win less than 12. Scott Kazmir's opportunities to win games is in question.
7. Schillinger. Dan Haren has the potential to move the team upward, and so does Nate Robertson. Oustide of that, there's a lot of 10-11 game winners.
8. Whitlock. I do like Tom Glavine's potential to rack up wins with the Mets, as well as the potential of Mussina and Matsuzaka to do the same on good teams. It's the production (or lackthereof) from Bartolo Colon and Boof Bonser that drag down the total.
9. Tomke. The young Tigers, Bonderman and Verlander, hold the key here. Mark Buerhle looms as a sleeper because of his history and a good team.
10. Wolf. The 1-3 is the best in the league, but waited so long to take a 4th pitcher that question marks John Maine and Tim Hudson sit at the back end of the rotation.

Saves

1. Radcliffe. BJ Ryan is fabulous, and Francisco Cordero is going to be a lot better than someone who lost his job and was traded last year should be. Though Todd Jones has a sweet moustache, he does have a lot of hard throwing youngsters behind him, clamoring for his job. The most solid 1-3 in the league right now, still.
2. Tomke. Assuming JJ Putz is healthy, he'll be a monster. Eric Gagne's injury opens the door for Dave to run out to a lead with Akinori Otsuka on board.
3. Brendel. As long as Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde can keep their jobs and stay out of AAA, this team has three pretty good closers.
4. Viano. Trevor Hoffman and Chris Ray are oustanding. Bob Wickman isn't technically good, but he always ends up getting himself a fair share of saves. As long as Wickman keeps his job, this could be a higher rank for Viano.
5. Stem. Only two full-time closers, but they're both awesome. Johnathon Broxton is going to be closing before the year is over, so Stem could rise up in this category depending on when Broxton is given the job.
6. Schillinger. Jon Papelbon's arm health issues cloud the situation here, but he could be a steal in round seven. Ryan Dempster and Salomon Torres will alternate in the 3rd spot and maybe accumulate a decent number between them.
7. Gieryna. Automatic Rivera is locked in, but the health of Jason Isringhausen and the team arond Octavio Dotel do not bode well for a lofty total.
8. Wolf. Eric Gagne on the DL to start the season doesn't start things out well, and neither does Joe Borowski's low skill level. Even Takashi Saito, as good as he was last year, was terrible within the division and has a talented young guy breathing down his neck.
9. Souzek. Joe Nathan is the best closer in the league, but Brad Lidge is the shakiest. Even though Mike Gonzalez is a superior baseball player to Bob Wickman, the sv opps aren't there...yet.
10. Whitlock. Armando Benitez is a constant health risk and Jorge Julio isn't a good pitcher. The opportunities should be there, but the talent isn't.

Strikeouts

1. Souzek. Roger Clemens projections isn't particularly high, but his late season signing could push Lincoln to #1.
2. Radcliffe. Roy Halladay doesn't strike out as many guys as you may remember, but Jake Peavy's Ks are amazing. Chris Young should also have a good K/9, and so will Escobar. Wang is hilariously bad a striking guys out, and that brings JR down to third.
3. Viano. Felix Hernandez should own this category, while Aaron Harang is also a big time K pitcher. Scott Olsen will chip in around the 180 mark and a healthy Rich Harden would be a monster as well.
4. Gieryna. Bronson Arroyo (really) and Brett Myers are quite good here. I don't like that the numbers placed this team so low, but I can't rationally move them up.
5. Brendel. Matt Cain, Scott Kazmir and John Lackey are all lights out in this category, and Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde both get Ks out of the bullpen.
6. Schillinger. Johan Santana should lead the league, and Rich Hill has an outside shot at 200. Javy Vasquez is a wild card in terms of the ratios, but his strikeouts are always there.
7. Stem. John Smoltz and Chris Carpenter will throw a lot of innings and accumulate a lot of Ks. The reason Stem may move up is that Billy Wagner and Johnathon Broxton in the pen will contribute 1-2 every time they pitch.
8. Wolf. Though Hamels and Zambrano should both have over 200 strikouts, there isn't enough support down the rotation to reach a loft level.
9. Whitlock. The two Red Socks, Matsuzaka and Beckett, will do a nice job here, but Tom Glavine is a strikeout wasteland.
10. Tomke. Randy Johnson isn't nearly as effective as he used to be here, and Mark Buerhle is just about useless in strikeouts.

Unlike OBA, I was able to weigh ERA and WHIP so that the values of a SP would be approxiamately 3x that of a reliever.

ERA

1. Souzek. The spreadsheet loves CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Adam Wainwright's youth could lead to fluctuations here.
2. Brendel. All the arms here have the ability to avoid disasterous starts which can pollute a solid ERA. Andy Pettite looms as a sleeper to have a very solid year.
3. Stem. Almost every starter projects to have an ERA under 4.00, and everyone in the bullpen will be under 3.00. It's a very dependable staff.
4. Radcliffe. I don't like the forcast for Capuano or Contreras this season, as they could get rocked at any time. Wang's lack of strikeouts leaves him vulnerable to big innings because of how many balls get put into play. I'm talking an awful lot about a guy who's out for a month. No more Wang!
5. Schillinger. The ERAs of Hill, Vasquez and Ian Snell will almost certainly creep above 4.00, making this a middling stat category.
6. Gieryna. The need to fill an entire staff from rounds 2 on, you get left with a lot of high ERA guys. Maddux, Loewen and Lilly should all be a healthy margin above 4.
7. Viano. With a lot of starters, you're going to see your ERA rise. Garland, Jeff Francis and Scott Olsen could all see theirs climb above 4, while Ben Sheets is the only one assured of a sub-3.50 mark.
8. Wolf. Again, numbers 4-6 could get shelled pretty frequently, and Carlos Zambrano is playing with fire with all the walks and fly balls.
9. Tomke. Randy Johnson, Buehrle, and Chuck James will all have inflated ERAs.
10. Whitlock. Josh Beckett's ERA soars because he lets up so many home runs. Mike Mussina, though good, will face some nasty AL East lineups. So will Dice-K and Beckett for that matter.

WHIP

1. Viano. Sheets is a maniac here, with an amazing 8:1 K/BB ratio. Three solid relievers help keep the WHIP down.
2. Radcliffe. Halladay and BJ Ryan's benefit from the exchange rate, as both of their WHIPs should hover around 1.00. That fuels this category.
3. Schillinger. Santana is a monster, and the rest of the team has good control. Both Huston Street and Jon Papelbon will have good ratios as well.
4. Brendel. Known Assbag Curt Schilling holds down this category because of his impeccable control. Matt Cain is set for a breakout and this is a category he'll do well in.
5. Tomke. The relievers are stellar in this category, giving a huge boost. Justin Verlander is is also good at keeping players off base.
6. Souzek. Joe Nathan is amazing, but Erik Bedard needs to work on his control. Dontrelle Willis had a bad whip trend started last year.
7. Stem. Despite the great ERA guys, but Anibal Sanchez and Ervin Santana allow a good amount of baserunners. Hopefully the defense behind those two can stay good so the ERAs remain low.
8. Gieryna. This goes along with having two shaky relievers. Other aforementioned starters will allow some baserunners.
9. Wolf. Carlos Zambrano does walk a lot of guys, and the WHIPs of John Maine and Kei Igawa will certainly flucuate and more than likely rise through the season.
10. Whitlock. Benitez and Julio will hurt this category, and so will a guy like Bonser.