Friday, March 28, 2008

Team Preview: James Patrick IV



20 Words or Less
: A franchise built around pitching is set up well for another top-3 finish, with a title easily within reach.

R: Jimmy Rollins had an obscene year, in all aspects, but especially in runs scored. Amassing over 700 at-bats allowed J-Roll to cross the dish 139 times. He should chip in at least 120 again this year. Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla crossed over 100 times last year, while Carlos Lee and Carlos Beltran should both hit the century mark as well. Expect: 950-960, 8-10 points

HR: Dan Uggla is basically the inverse of a traditional second baseman, big on power, low on steals. He should touch 30 homers again, joining as many as 5 other players on this roster over that mark. The only starter who doesn't figure to hit at least 20 is Kenji Johjima. Expect: 260-270, 7-10 points

RBI: Drew touched on the trade during Dave's preview, but this is where I love the trade for JR. By upgrading from Ken Griffey JR to Carlos Lee, Radcliffe added probably 40 RBI to his season total (plus about 20 runs and 10 homers). Lee is constantly among the league leaders in runs driven in, and this year figures to be no exception. Justin Morneau, Derrek Lee, Carlos Beltran and Jeff Francoeur all figure to hover around 100 as well. Expect: 950-960, 8-10 points

SB: We've hit the first deficiency for team Radcliffe, as the two best runners play the same position. It normally wouldn't be a big deal with a util. spot, but you can't put Julio Lugo in the lineup everyday over Derrek Lee. Carlos Beltran will contribute, and so will Carlos Lee, but no one else can be counted on to hit double digits. DLee serves as a wild card, a guy who's stolen bases in his career, but has abandoned that part of his game entirely. Expect: 95-105, 1-3 points

OBA: Another down category, with guys like Francoeur, Uggla, and Johjima hovering around .330. Even Rollins is below the .350 mark, and his average carries more weight than anyone elses. DLee and Chipper Jones bring the overall average up, but that's it. No one else was over .360 last year. Expect: .345-.355, 2-4 points

W: Jake Peavy will be as good as ever, and Erik Bedard is in for a bump this year, out of Baltimore. However, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Tim Hudson could be in for a dip from their totals of 15 last season. Mark Buehrle and Barry Zito should have huge seasons in 2002, so that's something. Expect: 90-100, 7-10 points

SV: Dealing Brandon Lyon leaves the saves category in flux, even though Lyon has pitched like dogshit and might not hold the closer job in AZ very long. Jon Papelbon is a phenomenal 4 category stud, and anchors the bullpen. Todd Jones, for all of his productivity in the save column, is a disaster waiting to happen. He's 40, with a skyrocketing ERA and WHIP. A lack of other options in the Tiger bullpen could make him serviceable, but there's quesiton marks all over this category. Expect: 75-85, 2-4 points

K: Contrary to what you may think, JR may have actually improved his strikeout potential despite dealing Aaron Harang. Reason being he also dealt off Chien Ming-Wang, death in that column. Maine and Buehrle could combine for more than Wang and Harang. Nonetheless, Peavy and Bedard are enough to make Radcliffe the favorite in this category. Expect: 1340-1350, 8-10 points

ERA: Wildcards here include Oliver Perez and John Maine. The Mets hurlers were both excellent last year, but Perez in particular has issues with his control (which cropped up in a mediocre second half) which could lead to an inflated ERA. (It was over 5.85 the three preceding seasons). Tim Hudson throws to a lot of contact, and if his HR/F becomes league average, he'll be in a lot of trouble. Bedard, Peavy= awesome. Buehrle, Maine= good. Barry Zito= awful. Expect: 3.60-3.75, 7-9 points

WHIP: Again, Barry Zito is bad, with WHIP creeping towards 1.40. But, he plays for the powerhouse Giants, so he'll at least get a portion of their 55 wins. Perez is a candidate to raise the overall WHIP. Outside of Oliver, however, there are an awful lot of guys with very low walk rates. Hudson, Buehrle, and even Zito have remarkable control. If Joe Borowski could grow facial hair, he would be called Todd Jones. Expect: 1.25-1.28, 5-8 points

Most Important Player: Jeff Francouer. "Frenchy" is getting the reacharound from the media about the shape reported in and the way he's hitting the ball this spring. If his homers rebound, and he can get the strike zone under control, he'll be a monster. A potential steal in round 6.

Biggest Question: Did you see that Sports Illustrated picked the Reds to finish ahead of the Brewers this year?
Biggest Answer: I did, and that shit is hilarious on like seven thousand levels.

Haiku Summary: Always great pitching. Offense loaded with power. Pants are optional.

1 comment:

lonewolf said...

"If Joe Borowski could grow facial hair, he would be called Todd Jones."

Very interesting and very deserving analysis.