Drew posed an interesting query to me this week, regarding the amount of sellers we have in the league. The question is simple- when is the right time (if ever) to give up on a season? He and I agreed to debate the point as I resurrect my shitty old Torch Column (One Man to Beat- a riveting Ed Schillinger vs. Paul Oren point/counterpoint feature, for you youngsters) in my attempt to resurrect the VUFSA Blog.
"Oh my god! We're having a FIRE! sale." (EJS)
In all honesty, there's really NO bad time to start thinking about next year in the VUFSA. We don't play for a great deal of money, so it's not as if you can make decent coin by finishing second or third. In my mind, it's championship or nothing. We play for pride and sometimes a plaque.
That's not to say that you should never try to stage a run or try to climb out of the cellar. Tomke's football run last year (didn't win a game until Week 6, then won 10 straight and made it to the league championship) is a prime example of what can happen with persistence.
That's adorable and heartwarming and all, but facing facts- sometime shit just doesn't go your way. Someone got hurt. Someone got benched or traded. You have the most points scored against you in the whole league even though your point output is quite good. It's hard to dedicate yourself to rebuilding a fantasy team, and can be quite frustrating if the league is in one if it's no-player-movement funks. So when is time to cut bait?
You can't do it too early, because 1) that's just chicken shit and 2) everyone still loves their draft one month into the season. Plus, no one is out of anything during the first quarter of the season. You can't do it too late either, because 1) the market of buyers has shrunk and 2) you may miss out on a deal because another guy filled the other owner's hole.
The VUFSA has proven itself to be a stable league and the value of great keepers and extra draft picks bears itself out every season, it seems. Truth is, there is no perfect time to pull the plug, so anytime there's a good futures market for your players I maintain that THAT is the right time to give the fuck up and trade me all your players.
Hang in there Pal! (DRW)
For years now, I have written in "Souretorch" for league entry and now I feel as if I am living up to the Torch part of it. Chris Stuart, you and your knife, eat your heart out.
I hate giving up on the season. Hate it. Fantasy football is too much fun to sit on the sidelines for half or more of the season. If nothing else, our roto baseball league teaches us that you have to be consistently good for five to six months to be a top-3 finisher. Our head-to-head fantasy football league teaches us that with a good five to six week push sprinkled with a little luck, you are a playoff team.
Last year at this time, Jerome Harrison - yeah a Browns reference - was a complete non-factor in VUFSA and the NFL. Dude sets rushing records the last three or four weeks. Whadupwit dat? "Waiver Wire" Willie Parker is a VUFSA legend. And numerous others have come from the free agent depths to power a many team to VUFSA glory. How can you deny the opportunity to find the next great Maurice Jones-Drew?
What determines when and when not to pull the plug? For even though I hate it, I will concede that finishing 10th is no different than finishing 5th. That said, I do disagree with Edwin's championship or bust argument for a playoff finish is still money and pride worthy. I'm the guy who makes a trade in baseball to try and finish second instead of third (damn you John Danks for not pitching better). But, the lower seeds, well, who cares, right?
For starters, one needs look at his own team. It sounds obvious, but if all the guys are healthy and just haven't put together the right weeks at the right time, chances are it'll even out. If your starting quarterback is seeing stars, your big time running back is being outplayed by a rookie, and your starting tight end blew out his groin, there just aren't the pieces in places to make the surge. That said, where are your overall points? Are they in the top half of the league? Where are opponents points? Are they stupidly unfair?
90% of our league is within two weeks of clinching a playoff berth. With seven weeks to play, a three game winning streak is not all that unachievable to propel one's team to the victory brackets. No, I'm not going to get into tie breakers, but when faced with three wins in a row taking a look at the schedule to see where those upcoming games are coming. 50% of the league is .500 or worse and thereby games I designate as "winnable". Who's next? 1-5 followed by 3-3 with 2-4 there following? It's winnable. Got a game against one of the top dogs? Well, you have to beat one or two of them anyway to be a contender so might as well give it a shot.
Plus, dismantling a team is tricky business. You have to build for next year without asking for players that contending teams feel are necessary to this year's success. I personally have run into this conundrum more than once. How to obtain great young talent for next season with having minimal to offer as a bottom-feeder? Draft picks tend to be the way to go, but the VUFSA isn't exactly known for its wild wheeling and dealing. We tend to dabble in tight ends for 6th round pick territory and when rebuilding a club, just truly how valuable is that flex wide receiver next year? Eh. It's not impossible, but why hang your hopes on finding that next Broncos/Saints wide receiver when you could be fighting down to the wire?
5 comments:
Given the events of this week, it's clear that I agree with Ed more than Drew here. I certainly am of the mind that it's championship-or-nothing. Last year I battled and scrounged and gave up a bunch of draft picks in hopes of making the playoffs. I did that, then lost twice to finish fourth. In doing so, I severely hurt my chances this year (Baron drafted Arian Foster with my second-round pick, which is who I would have taken in that spot, too). Frankly, I'd rather finish 8th than 4th, because I'd get a better draft slot. 2nd, 3rd and 4th place are useless to me.
ALSO, I think it's possible to build for next year without completely gutting your team and becoming non-competitive. I gave up Gates for a draft pick, but I also have Aaron Hernandez, who is a solid fill-in and won't hurt me most weeks.
My point is ... I don't know. I guess mostly just that I agree with Ed. I wonder if this is because we're Cubs fans and are conditioned to always look ahead to next year?
As a Cleveland fan, I resent the last line in your post.
Also, the blog is so white and blue.
For the record Drew, I offered to HELP you pass me for second just two months ago. That's how committed to firesaling (fireselling?) I am.
I don't know if there's a reason behind it but there are fewer draft picks traded every year. Do they hold an inflated value now more than before?
I think that we would see a lot more sellers if we could get an active trade market going. Is that next weeks OMTB? Proper way to stimulate trade talk?
I would read that.
Then again, I don't have much else going on right now.
The trade market will pick up now that I have working internet 24/7.
-Tomke
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