Playoff Percentages Revisited

"The Philiadelphia Eagles are different with Jeff Garcia."
-Chris Berhman

While things are different in the VUFSA playoff picture since the last time I discussed the issue, I find that in actuality only Dave Tomke has pushed more toward the homosexual side since my playoff percentages post. The intense passion shared between Tomke and the Cowboys' QB was not enough, however, to warrant him starting this past week. But I shall start by saying that my playoff percentages blog was fairly inaccurate. Being an owner who is giddy with playoff fever, though, I will be a good sport and revisit the issue and show just how dumb I was back in week 4.

Who Is Ron Mexico? chances of making the playoffs -25%

This was a prediction I got right. You cannot start 0-4 and expect to make the playoffs. 0-3, sure, but 0-4 absolutely not. In reality, Tomke would go 4-6 the rest of the way, which is respectable enough. Solid trades - acquiring Willis McGahee - and significant waiver wire pick ups - the aforementioned Tony Romo - led Tomke to play close to .500 ball down the stretch. While he may be in decent shape for next season, he indeed had no shot this year.

Father Abraham chances of making the playoffs: 0.4%

Here again I did pretty well. While the negative percentages probably should have been placed on Father Abraham and not Who Is Ron Mexico, the bottom line is that neither made the playoffs and neither was predicted to do so. After writing the playoff post, Souzek would win the next week out but never again, ending the season on a nine game losing streak despite putting up close to or over 100 points half the time out. I still maintain that this is the best last place team in any sport that the VUFSA has ever seen, in what can only be a sadly bittersweet descriptor for Lincoln's season.

Tice's Partyboat chances of making the playoffs: 1.9%

Happily, this one was very very wrong. I attribute my success after starting in such a hole to Bernie Kosar. This post with his number fired up the troops, leading them, much like Kosar, to the conference championship game only to fizzle out before making the Super Bowl. Next year, I'm going to try and not start 0-3 and again make the playoffs. That 3 game handicap leads to way too much stress the rest of the way complete with sweating and heart palpatations, which now that I think about it, may be caused by my infatuation with Maurice Jones-Drew. Guys named Drew are soooooo good.

Cellar Dwellers chances of making the playoffs: 15%

From the original post:

"Shaun Alexander is out and there appears to be no sense of urgency to fix the gaping hole left by the NFL's MVP. Can Stem leave Anthony Thomas in the hole and risk falling out of contention? My brain says there's an 85% chance no. "

My brain now says 0%. There was no urgency to fix the Alexander situation, and really there was no urgency to do anything, including taking inactive players out of the line-up. Now that I think about it, has anyone spoken to Stem recently? Is he still alive and well? Despite this inaction, Stem did stumble upon five wins this year but was unable to capture the lightning from last year and return to the VUFSA Championship Game. 15% seems like a fairly accurate number for a modestly decent team that most felt would not be actively seeking stop gaps.

Naj Davenport's Poop chances of making the playoffs: 40%

Here's another one that didn't exactly pan out. The second seeded team was given less than a 50-50 shot at making the postseason. Looking at what I wrote then and how I feel about the team now, not much has changed except for the team's record. Viano has found a way to win despite a roster that is very up and down. Peyton Manning has taken his winter hibernation. Ronnie Brown went down for the rest of the VUFSA season a couple weeks back. Then trades only sort of met the needs of the Poop as Santana Moss was acquired but didn't crack the starting line-up over Matt Jones. While I was terribly wrong about the percentage here, I am concerned about the playoff push given the roster shuffling in the last two weeks.

Fresh Legs chances of making the playoffs: 50%

Here is a prediction that I feel turned out, as Baron was in it until the very last week of the season. While two of the three outcomes Baron needed to have happen didn't (Drew/Champ loss, Baron win), the bottom line is that he was in it until the very end. If Morris doesn't take a victory from him on a Thursday, maybe things would have been different and transactions would have been influenced (such as dumping off Lavernaeus Coles). We'll never know, but Baron had a decent if not slightly disappointing season, more in his own eyes than anyone's as this expansion team came to fight in 2006.

The Nihilist Marmot chances of making the playoffs: 50%

Another team that I was off just slightly on. JR would make the playoffs if not for a little late season sweat. Now, he probably has the best chance to knock off Edwin's Empire as any of the playoff teams. The aging team closely resembles the 2005 Blaine Browns, but hey, do what you can with Randy Moss, Warrick Dunn, and Edgerrin James. Curtis Martin is still available and Chris Brown is probably pretty cheap if you went knocking. JR has won 7 of his last 9 with his only 2 losses during this time coming at the hands of playoff teams. The voodoo worked again.

ChamPeons chances of making the playoffs: 60%

From the original post:

Overall, though, I think that this is a team that is going to be fighting right down to the wire.

And indeed they did go right down to the wire. The final two weeks of the season, Champ merely needed a single victory or a single Tice's Partyboat defeat. Neither happened, and ChamPeons just missed out on their first ever trip to the VUFSA postseason. Brent probably should have made the playoffs over me, especially considering that whole 0-3 start thing, and a 60% chance strikes me as a fairly solid psychic stab. He has young players to bulid with next year and with another stellar draft like this past one, he will make it in 2007.

The Slumpbusters chances of making the playoffs: 90%

Well what do you know? That didn't work out. On October 18th, Eli was #1 in the power rankings having just posted a record number of points in handing The Spreadsheet their only loss of the season. I remember JR posting somewhere at sometime, "Of all the Eli collapses, this one will be the most fun." While not a joyous time for The Gun, the rest of the season was downhill. The Slumpbusters would lose 7 of their next 8 with their 1 win coming at the hands of the last place Father Abraham. Perhaps concerned that like Rocky Balboa in Apollo Creed's final fight, he wouldn't throw in the towel at the right time, Eli packed in before he was really out of it. A trade sending Marc Bulger and Warrick Dunn to one of his top playoff competitors signaled the end of the year for The Gun who will have to once again try and figure out how to keep early season momentum going all year long, all the while destroying us in fantasy baseball and basketball. I, for one, attribute his poor performance due to a lack of Jon Clayton updates. How I miss thee!

Madd Skillz chances of making the playoffs: 100%

No questions here. The best team in probably in any fantasy league anywhere with the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver (and really multiple deep at these spots) was never tested. It took a record breaking performance to hand them a loss, and in a league where 8 wins is good for a spot in the playoffs, Ed had it clinched by week 9. There was never any doubt that he would make the playoffs and there really shouldn't be for next year either so long as LT, Rudi, Larry Johnson and company come back healthy in 2007.

In all, I pegged this year's playoff teams as having a 1.9%, 40%, 50%, and 100% chance of making it in. Not so hot, but I did do alright on some of the other teams that did not make it. A fun excercise in guessing that made for an interesting post. And for my early season prediction for 2007? Andrew Hanson wins it all.