Seen first at Kissing Suzy Kolber:
If you don't think that Mike Tice (#86) dancing around the Seahawk locker room in 1985 is hilarious, then fuck you. It's about time the blog resurrected for something. All-Star Break press conferences maybe? Whatever. I'm bored.
Friday, July 06, 2007
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
The Good, The Bad, and The Needed
(Note: I composed half of this essay before Tuesday night's games and therefore all the stats might be slightly different than what they should now be. But back off 'cause I don't see you offering any baseball insight, punk.)
Cellar Dwellers:
The Good:
Has 7's in stolen bases and on base percentage thanks to Juan Pierre's speed and everyone else's OBP (Pierre .308). David DeJesjus (leads team with 26 runs scored) and JJ Hardy (leads team with 26 RBIs) are plesant surprises. Jamie Moyer and John Smoltz are throwing incredibly well from their old man rockers.
The Bad:
Stephen Drew is in a slump to start the season and considering his lofty draft location, more is needed. Michael Cuddyer has missed a slew of games to go with an anemic Twins offense. Chris Carpenter's arm is getting worse with each report. Chad Cordero's WHIP is higher than two closers' ERA.
The Needed:
In short, everything. Probably not too soon to start selling off parts ala Edwin last year. Some draft picks would be valuable in rebuilding as Pierre could go to a team needing stolen bases, saves are always coveted (Wagner), and Adam Dunn has been inquired about by no fewer than three teams.
Moises' Pee Hands:
The Good:
9 of Viano's 38 points (24% of total) come in the stolen bases category. Shane Victorino has stolen more bases this year (13) than his two previous seasons combined (11). Chase Utley is just getting going (5HRs, 26 RBIs) after a slow start.
The Bad:
Joe Mauer, Bob Wickman, Felix Hernandez, and Rich Harden are all on the DL and the replacement parts are Paul Lo Duca, Rafel Soriano, Scott Olsen, and Dave Bush, respectively. Yuck. Felipe Lopez in 133 at bats has managed a whopping 11 runs and 3 RBIs as Viano's starting shortstop.
The Needed:
A comfortable hospitable bed. Oh, and see Stem.
Genesis 25:8
The Good:
Vladimir Gurerrero is a scary man with a baseball bat. Jeff Suppan is pitching remarkably well. Dave Coty is a nice man. And Lincoln apparently watches The Office which is needed to understand about 3/4 of the league's smack talk.
The Bad:
Trades have not panned out as Michael Young is still playing well below where he should. Eric Gagne died exactly 4.2 seconds after becoming a member of Lincoln's team. Mariano Rivera can't snap out of his funk. Outfield includes Cory Hart (not playing every day), Shawn Green (picked up off of waivers), and Corey Patterson (bad).
The Needed:
An outfield is a good start. Not paying so much to get saves would help in every other statistical category.
Bondo and the Asians:
The Good:
Justin Verlander (2.75-1.22), Gil Meche (2.23-1.18), and Jeremy Bonderman (3.69-1.18) are a solid three at the top of the rotation, even if they aren't flashy. J.J. Putz is amazing, and I'll probably end up overpaying for him by the end of the season.
The Bad:
Has four second baseman on the roster including Ty Wigginton who is seeing regular playing time with a .295 OBP. Speaking of OBP, it was brought to my attention that Scott Rolen's is .276. Ichiro has scored 10 fewer runs than Rickie Weeks. Also, Tomke succeeded in breaking Lincoln's record for the fastest a newly acquired player went on the DL when Phil Hughes went down as the transaction was clicked as accepted.
The Needed:
As mentioned, Ty Wigginton is seeing regular playing time so any type of upgrade, including Ed Schillinger in high school would be good. Geoff Jenkins isn't playing every day so starting him in the outfield is incredibly risky. Another starting pitcher or two would be nice so that Tomke doesn't have to rely so heavily on Randy Johnson (6.50-1.56) and Chuck James (4.84-1.61) would be a nice.
Gyroballs:
The Good:
Has returned from a nine day hiatus and can once again devote the mandatory ten hours a day to staring at VUFSA related information. John Lackey is quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball (4 wins, 43 K's in 45 innings, 3.60 ERA), Brad Penny just went ape shit against the Marlins, and Matt Cain despite his 1 win is pitching really well. Offensively, Torii Hunter (6 HRs, 21 RBIs, 7 steals), Matt Holliday (5 HRs, 26 RBIs, .403 OBP), and most of all Josh Hamilton (8 HRs) have performed at or above levels expected.
The Bad:
Morgan Ensberg isn't that good at third (2 HRs, 10 RBIs in 91 at bats). Keeper Miguel Tejeda, first rounder Hideki Matsui, and second rounder Carlos Delgado have combined to hit 5 home runs. Tom Gordon is on the DL for the forseeable future, and Baron lacks a third closer to fill the last RP spot.
The Needed:
As mentioned, a third closer would help, though David Aardsma is a solid ERA/WHIP option. Chone Figgins not sucking (0 runs, .148 OBP in 26 at bats) would go a long way in the runs and stolen bases categories. An upgrade at second base and Julio Lugo (.302 OBP) and the previous big three would increase the offensive output tremendously.
ChamPeons:
The Good:
Champ has 5 starting pitchers with ERAs under 3.50 and WHIPs under 1.17. "Awesome" Al Reyes is, well, awesome with a stellar 10 saves and 1.80 ERA. The shortstop duo of Hanley Ramierez and Derek Jeter have .OBPs of .421 and .424. Prince Fielder is also really good with 9 homers and 26 RBIs. Add in a heating up Gary Sheffield, and things are looking up for Champ's offense.
The Bad:
First round selection Dice-K looked great in some early outings but has struggled since. He now sits with 5.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.32. For all of Delmon Young's potential, he has a .282 OBP and just 2 stolen bases. Gary Sheffield struggled mightily to start the season, which put ChamPeons in a bit of a hole. Veteran issues. Ivan Rodriguez is finally showing his age (.267 OBP), and Mike Mussina has vanished.
The Needed:
In the middle of the pack, Champ certainly isn't out of it. With middle of the road numbers in the offensive categories (4 in HRs, 5 RBIs, 4 stolen bases, 6 in OBP), he could use a stud to drive up some of these statistics. Perhaps dealing from the similar stats of Jeter and Ramierz to drive up homers and RBIs might be a worthwhile move.
Kelly Kapoor:
The Good:
Has 10's in homers, RBIs, and stolen bases (9 on .OBP) that shows the signs of a keeper line-up that featured six offensive players. If anyone had expected this type of output from Barry Bonds (10 HRs, 22 RBIs, .528 OBP in 74 at bats), he wouldn't have made it out of the first round. Jose Reyes is phenomenal (30 runs, 19 stolen bases, .425 OBP), and Ian Kinsler is playing way better (9 HRs, 25 RBIs) than was thought of by a certain manager of Creed Bratton.
The Bad:
With just 3's wins and saves and 4's in ERA and WHIP, the pitching has held Eli back from his usual dominance. Brett Myers inexplicably found himself as a middle reliever in mid-April, but has had his value shoot up with Tom Gordon's injury. Typically shrewd moves netted The Gun Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Jered Weaver while giving up very little (Manny Ramierez) offensively. The closers are not sexy (Owens, Soria, and Izzy) but at least are going to get save chances. If Jason Schmidt, Pedro Martinez, and Tim Lincecum can all pitch the way they are capable of the second half of the season, Eli may win the league yet. Oh, and Ryan Howard is batting .198.
The Needed:
Pitching performances. Eli's already gone out and made the moves to upgrade his pitching while subtracting very little from the rest of his club. Now, he just needs them to kick it up at notch. Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez getting serious would help out, too.
Brady Quinn's Blonde
The Good:
10 in runs, 9 in HRs, 9.5 saves, and 9 in WHIP are all solid starts. Derke Lee (22 runs, 21 RBIs, .496 OBP) has resumed his pre-2006 injury standing as one of the best first basemen in baseball. Chipper Jones is healthy and playing exceptionally well (26 runs, 10 HRs, 22 RBIs). Chris Capuano (5 wins, 2.31 ERA), Kelvim Escobar (2.84 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and Chris Young (4 wins, 3.29 ERA) have carried the starting staff.
The Bad:
BJ Ryan's arm has fallen off. Jason Frasor and Todd Jones may not be closers by the end of the season, which makes JR's bullpen fragile. I love Travis Hafner for multiple reasons and won't even bother posting his stats because damn it, he's awesome. Alfonso Soriano has had a miserable start to the season, and while hope is certainly not lost for him, he has to play more like the best player in baseball to push JR to the top of the standings.
The Needed:
Kenny Lofton is fine as a stolen base option, but he hurts so many other categories that if JR could get steals from someone else, it would help out. With a 2 in that category, someone needs to contribute. BQB also is posting a 2 in strikeouts and that brings me to the Rocket. Roger Clemens is 44, and if JR is going to win it all, Clemens needs to be dominant again. At the cost of nothing, though, Clemens could be the pick up of the season.
Creed Bratton:
The Good:
The Cleveland Indians representatives are playing well. Grady Sizemore is doing it all (26 runs, 5 HRs, 11 steals, .410 OBP), and Victor Martinez would be the top rated catcher if not for pulling a hammy in the snow (4 HRs, 26 RBIs, .434 OBP). Troy Glaus was player of the week last week and has 6 homers in 57 at bats. Late round pitching picks have panned out with Tim Hudson (3 wins, 1.70-0.91) and John Maine (5 wins, 1.37-1.07) leading the rotation. Even Dan Wheeler who has been unspectacular assumed the Astros' closing role about a minute into the season thereby making Takashi Saito and Eric Gagne expendable in a deal bringing David Ortiz to Creed Bratton.
The Bad:
Whereas Hudson and Maine have been the leaders of the staff, the two guys kept have struggled. Brandon Webb (2 wins, 3.75-1.38) and Carlos Zambrano (3 wins, 5.80-1.61) have shown flashes of being the #1 and #2 pitchers in Cy Young voting but early season shellings have inflated the stats. Ryan Freel has seen extended playing time and isn't that good. Bill Hall has struggled in an otherwise awesome Brewers' line-up. Lastly, proving why no owner should hold any non-AL Central leading Cleveland Indians on their roster, Jim Thome and Scott Podsednik are clogging the DL.
The Needed:
Webb and Big Z to get rocking would help the team's 4.5 in wins, 5.5 in ERA and 6.5 in WHIP. Much like Brady Quinn's Blonde, Creed Bratton holds crummy stolen base options in Willy Taveras and Ryan Freel who suck so bad while contributing to just one major category while harming all others. A better closer option would help what is an otherwise tentative bullpen (David Weathers, Dan Wheeler, Joe Borowski), and Jason Frasor relinquishing the Blue Jays' closer position in favor of Jeremy Accardo would do just that.
Banana Hammock
The Good:
No category is under 5, which shows no overwhelming weakness. Despite the recent whining about a little slump, Edwin does hold the best player in baseball (by far) in Alex Rodriguez (34 runs, 15 HRs, 39 RBIs, .426 OBP). The team is pitching out of their minds right now as Javier Vazquez is the only starter with a worse ERA than Johan Santana. Santana sucks, trade him to me. Dan Haren and Rich Hill both have ERAs under 2 and WHIPs under 1. Ian Snell and Nate Robertson have ERAs under 2.5 and WHIPs under 1.2. Papelbon (10 saves), Street (9 saves), Dempster (7 saves), and Torres (7 saves) form a solid four while giving Edwin the luxury of benching the slumping of the four (Torres) for the time being.
The Bad:
But Banana Hammock does have 3 5's (runs, stolen bases, and OBP), which does leave room for improvement. Craig Monroe is in the line-up today, which does say something. Pat Burrell has a .179 difference in his on base percentage to his batting average meaning he's walking a ton and not driving in runs. Rafael Furcal has scored just 15 runs and has only 3 stolen bases while getting on base at a yucky 31% rate. I hate the team name, which Edwin knows and is why he keeps it. Too many banana hammocks in Grand Cayman gave me nightmares.
The Needed:
Michael Barrett isn't playing well (8 runs, .294 OBP) and Yahoo has 3 catchers available on the waiver wire ranked hire than him. Albert Pujols has started very slowly and if he hits the way we all know he can, the offensive categories will show improvement. Likewise, David Wright from the utility spot is slow to go. Josh Willingham cannot continue to be the best outfielder in a group that boasts Andruw Jones and Jason Bay. And a miraculous recovery from Franscisco Lirano would be icing on the cake.
Friday, April 27, 2007
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
The Not-Quite-Preseason and Not-Quite-Everyone-Voting Preseason Poll
I thought about waiting for people like Viano, Lincoln, Tomke and ELI (!!!) to turn in a preseason poll, but since it's not the preseason anymore, I figured I'd run with it and not try to rattle cages. Since let's be honest, this stuff is kind of silly. But it's also fun. So shut the fuck up.
Since we made the edict that one could not vote for himself, the voting results would obviously be skewed if a simple point total were amassed. Thus, it shall be average placement in the polls (with point total inverted based on ranking) that determines who the (handful of) owners feel will win the crown.
1. Eli Gieryna (8.3). Perhaps it is his sheepish Indian princess smile that gave him the mere percentage points edge over No. 2, or the fact that he has sexually attractive keepers that give him the power, the speed and everything else. In bed. Only one voter card had him lower than second place, and that owner voted him third.
2. Ed Schillinger (8.2). The commissioner has been setting himself up for success this year ever since last May, garnering a tremendous list of keepers and taking high draft picks to boot. Throw in a typical savvy in playing the game, and it's pretty clear he deserves to be among the league elite.
3. JR Radcliffe (7.2). There was a large dropoff after 1-2, and while Radcliffe may not get the preseason attention afforded to his preceding colleagues, he is still by far the most handsome and dangerous man in the VUFSA. He was given one first place nod, and all other first place nods went to either Ed or Eli. Injuries have already come to roost, however, for the Radmonium.
4. Drew Wolf (6.0). Always a mainstay in the VUFSA, Wolf was given the most consistent marks across the board, with one owner seeing him in fifth, one in third and three in fourth. It is believed that Wolf can sneak up on people and shock everyone in the title round. There is proof.
5. Lincoln Souzek (4.8). Proxy-man Dave Cotey said about drafting this man's team: "It's like choosing which hot chick to take to prom and then not getting laid afterward." Congratulations, Lincoln, for becoming the beneficiary of some easy sex.
6. Baron Brendel (4.4). One poll had Brendel as high as second place, while another had him in last, so owners vary widely on what the Fat Man's team will bring this season. One thing is for sure: the Cincinnati Reds will still suck.
7. Dave Tomke (3.8). Though Tomke drafted an abudnance of players from his hometown team and failed in his effort to acquire the best and brightest Asians in the Major Leagues, he remains an up-and-coming threat who is just waiting for a breakthrough.
8. Andy Viano (3.7). It's surprising to see a VUFSA owner who has enjoyed success so low on the totem pole, and no doubt being placed below Tomke will make him become violent and execute a puppy.
9. Andrew Stem (2.0). Poor Stem and Champ, with just one placement higher than second-to-last between them (Stem was placed third-to-last on one ballot) and by far the lowest average scores. At least Stem has Internet now. He'll need to use it, getting some sexy waiver wire purchases to upgrade his team.
10. Brent Whitlock (1.4). It should be acknowledged that Ed Schillinger asked "Who's Brent?" during draft discussion online, a sign that Ed still refuses to believe this Iowan/Indianapolisian goes by anything other than the nickname Schillinger manufactured for him. Silly Ed. Also, Champ's team is bad. But Champ is awesome.
Since we made the edict that one could not vote for himself, the voting results would obviously be skewed if a simple point total were amassed. Thus, it shall be average placement in the polls (with point total inverted based on ranking) that determines who the (handful of) owners feel will win the crown.
1. Eli Gieryna (8.3). Perhaps it is his sheepish Indian princess smile that gave him the mere percentage points edge over No. 2, or the fact that he has sexually attractive keepers that give him the power, the speed and everything else. In bed. Only one voter card had him lower than second place, and that owner voted him third.
2. Ed Schillinger (8.2). The commissioner has been setting himself up for success this year ever since last May, garnering a tremendous list of keepers and taking high draft picks to boot. Throw in a typical savvy in playing the game, and it's pretty clear he deserves to be among the league elite.
3. JR Radcliffe (7.2). There was a large dropoff after 1-2, and while Radcliffe may not get the preseason attention afforded to his preceding colleagues, he is still by far the most handsome and dangerous man in the VUFSA. He was given one first place nod, and all other first place nods went to either Ed or Eli. Injuries have already come to roost, however, for the Radmonium.
4. Drew Wolf (6.0). Always a mainstay in the VUFSA, Wolf was given the most consistent marks across the board, with one owner seeing him in fifth, one in third and three in fourth. It is believed that Wolf can sneak up on people and shock everyone in the title round. There is proof.
5. Lincoln Souzek (4.8). Proxy-man Dave Cotey said about drafting this man's team: "It's like choosing which hot chick to take to prom and then not getting laid afterward." Congratulations, Lincoln, for becoming the beneficiary of some easy sex.
6. Baron Brendel (4.4). One poll had Brendel as high as second place, while another had him in last, so owners vary widely on what the Fat Man's team will bring this season. One thing is for sure: the Cincinnati Reds will still suck.
7. Dave Tomke (3.8). Though Tomke drafted an abudnance of players from his hometown team and failed in his effort to acquire the best and brightest Asians in the Major Leagues, he remains an up-and-coming threat who is just waiting for a breakthrough.
8. Andy Viano (3.7). It's surprising to see a VUFSA owner who has enjoyed success so low on the totem pole, and no doubt being placed below Tomke will make him become violent and execute a puppy.
9. Andrew Stem (2.0). Poor Stem and Champ, with just one placement higher than second-to-last between them (Stem was placed third-to-last on one ballot) and by far the lowest average scores. At least Stem has Internet now. He'll need to use it, getting some sexy waiver wire purchases to upgrade his team.
10. Brent Whitlock (1.4). It should be acknowledged that Ed Schillinger asked "Who's Brent?" during draft discussion online, a sign that Ed still refuses to believe this Iowan/Indianapolisian goes by anything other than the nickname Schillinger manufactured for him. Silly Ed. Also, Champ's team is bad. But Champ is awesome.
Sunday, April 01, 2007
Baseball Projections
I'm tweaking the formula this year for my projected baseball standings. Instead of opening up everyone's team page and looking at last year's stats, I'm looking into the future and factoring in age, potential and consistency. Neither injuries nor trades nor bench players really play a factor here. There's some stuff I don't agree with- but I'm sticking to the scientific formula (adding) that I decided on before the draft.
Runs:
1. Schillinger. This hinges on how quickly Rafael Furcal gets back onto the field, but still has six guys that should cross 100 times.
2. Gieryna. If Jose Reyes can hold his OBA gains, he'll be a monster in this category- may lead this league.
3. Wolf. Grady Sizemore led the league in runs scored last year, and is a great start. Victor Martinez provides a boost from the C position. The offenses Michael Young, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome will provide them all with a number of opportunities.
4. Tomke. Speedsters Ichiro and Jimmy Rollins are the main reason for the lofty ranking, and Rickie Weeks has the potential to score 100 runs- and probably would if his team wasn't boring and irrelevant.
5. Brendel. The middle of the pack is just about right, with no overwhelming run scorers but no weaknesses either. Julio Lugo's average offensive ability is where the potential to move up is. If Lugo can take advantage of batting at the top of the Red Sock lineup, he could hit 100 and move Baron up a few slots.
6. Radcliffe. The injury to Carlos Quentin clouds things, as does the effeciency of the Royal offense and it's impact on Mark Teahan. Alfonso Soriano and Johnny Damon are locks for 110+ this season.
7. Whitlock. Derek Jeter is a sure 120 runs or so, while Garrett Atkins and Hanley Ramirez will excel as well. Outside of those three, no one else is a sure thing to cross 90 times this season.
8. Souzek. David Ortiz, Vlad Guererro and Mark Teixeira will set the pace in this category, just like every other one. Vernon Wells and Bill Hall will also fare well.
9. Viano. In my opinion, Viano saw how little offense was really out there in the draft, and shifted his focus to pitching, hence 4 straight arms at one point. As a result, had to fill in the holes with some damaged parts from middling offenses (Baldelli, D. Roberts, F. Lopez) and the runs will reflect that.
10. Stem. Will get punished in this post for having a lot of youngsters who I can't really project. How good will a middle infield of Stephen Drew and Josh Barfield be? I can only be cautious when predicting those two, leading to a low cumulative total.
Home Runs
1. Gieryna. When you have the reigning home run champ, a guy who made a run at 60, that's a start. After that, you have an automatic 40 from Manny and 35 from Beltran and Cabrera each. Barry Bonds' contribution to this category is interesting, and Ian Kinsler's 20 potential knocks is a great advantage as well.
2. Schillinger. Raised up considerably with the Jones/Young deal, adding almost 20 homers to the team total. Watch out for Josh Willingham, who has 25 HR potential this year. Michael Barrett provides a nice boost of maybe 20 from the catcher position.
3. Souzek. Could get 130 from just three players. Bill Hall will probably lead all players with SS eligibility in HRs, which is a great boost. Vernon Wells will make a run at 30 again. Mike Piazza is a wild-card, as his DHing may yield fantastic power numbers from the catcher spot.
4. Brendel. Pushed into the top half because of the addition of Richie Sexson's 30+ HRs from the UTIL spot. Matt Holliday should come close to 40 dingers, while Carlos Delgado and Morgan Ensberg are solid bets for 30.
5. Radcliffe. Derrek Lee is going to come back and have a monster season this year, and when you match him with sluggers like Soriano and Hafner, it's a wonder that JR doesn't move up at all. 75% of the outfield looks like it has a 20 HR ceiling this year, and that brings down the category. Teahan could break that mold, as soon as he's OF eligible.
6. Wolf. Troy Glaus and Jim Thome's health will make the difference in this category. Nick Swisher should probably chip in 30+. Todd Helton is a wild card, and could move the team up two points with a decent season.
7. Stem. Getting Adam Dunn in the first round will offset the hilarious lack of pop from Juan Pierre. Aramis Ramirez are Lance Berkman sure things, but watch out for Adam LaRoche, who quietly knocked out 32 homers last season.
8. Viano. Jason Giambi is the perfect utility player for this team, as his pop is much needed. I'm suprised that a team with a powerful 2B and guys like Konerko and Giambi is so low, but Dave Roberts and his 3 projected homers coupled with Felipe Lopez' move to RFK can really deflate a team.
9. Whitlock. A breakout for Prince Fielder and good health from Gary Sheffield would rocket this team up the board for sure, but this team lacks pop. Keep in mind, 50% of the keepers on this squad were middle infielders.
10. Tomke. Justin Morneau is a lock for 30, and he could get to 35 easily. Carlos Lee is the key here- playing park with a joke of a left field fence he could hit 40 dingers for the first time in his career. Could move up a couple spots if Frank Thomas occupies the UTIL spot over Howie Kendrick. (I simulated lineups based on draft order, hence the Kendrick inclusion over Thomas.)
Runs Batted In
1. Gieryna. Howard, Manny and Cabrera lead the way, of course, but it's the solid RBI "ability" of Raul Ibanez and Brian McCann are what sets the team apart here.
2. Schillinger. Albert Pujols and A-Rod reign supreme, while three other guys should hit the 100 RBI mark.
3. Brendel. Projections of Figgins and Lugo hold back what is an otherwise outstanding run producing core of Holliday, Sexson, Delgado and Matsui. Miguel Tejada will probably lead all SS in RBI, so that's another bonus.
4. Souzek. I still love Mark Teixeira, so I'll go out on a limb and say he leads the league in RBI this year. He's fantastic. Outside of that, Papi, Vlad etc... No suprises here.
5. Viano. Watch for Alex Rios in this category, as he has a shot at 100 this season. Outside of that, keep an eye on Joe Crede and Jeff Francour, who's power numbers need to be there as their combined on-base averages are less than .600.
6. Whitlock. The guys who lack in big time homer numbers do hold their own in RBI- notably Magglio Ordonez and Nick Markakis. Garrett Atkins (who inexplicable hasn't been mentioned yet) is a fabulous person who will surpass 100 RBI.
7. Tomke. Bobby Abreu is the guy to keep an eye on in this category, as he should hit 100 RBI easily with the Yankee lineup as is. Scott Rolen, if healthy, is capable of big RBI numbers as well. If Rolen is healthy, Dave could move into the top 5.
8. Radcliffe. Despite the Hafner/Lee powerhouse, there are a lot of power positions that lack RBI opps, such as Damon and Quentin in the OF. Chipper Jones is no longer the run producer he once was, and 3B is now a big time position for RBI in the league.
9. Wolf. In order to get any steals into the lineup, Drew employs two guys who may not combine for 80 driven in. The lack of pop between Ryan Freel and Willy Tavares weighs down the Wolfman's power categories.
10. Stem. Pierre and Rowand are poor RBI men, and Josh Barfield doesn't project to be a middle of the order guy either. Ramirez is really good, so is Berkman, but it's not enough.
Stolen Bases
1. Tomke. Had a nice start with Ichiro, Abreu and Rollins in the keeper stable, but vaulted to the top by adding Weeks, Crisp and even Kendrick- all of whom should swipe 20+.
2. Gieryna. Didn't really address steals in the draft, allowing Dave to run past him. Still, 120+ coming from Reyes/Crawford, so the extras from Beltran and Kinsler are just a bonus.
3. Souzek. Mike Cameron is the great add to this club, as he's a legitimate threat for 20-20. Korey Patterson and Brandon Phillips will carry this category, and need to have great stealing seasons with their pitiful oba.
4. Brendel. Overcoming Figgins' injury is key- as he's penciled in for 40% of the team's steals right now. Torii Hunter and Julio Lugo should pick up some slack, but if Figgy misses too much time, Baron's headed to the basement.
5. Stem. Juan Pierre's name has come up a lot- but this time it's valid. He's a monster in this category and will account for over half the team's steals, because only Barfield and maybe Rowand are threats to run. Eric Byrnes getting a spot in the lineup would help this category.
6. Schillinger. Went for steals early, as a way of avoiding the guys who can only run. Brian Roberts and the now-injured Rafael Furcal can both steal 30, and they won't kill you anywhere else. David Wright and Jason Bay both run, which is a nice boost.
7. Viano. Like Drew, counting on one specialist to boost this category. Where he differs is that he'll get near 20 apeice from Utley, Rios, Baldelli and Lopez. A lot of guys chip in and make up for a combined zero from Giambi, Konerko and Crede.
8. Whitlock. Entire steal total is based off of keepers- didn't draft a guy that will swipe double digits. Could still compete if HanRam creeps up on 60, but he's got a sophomore slump feel to him.
9. Radcliffe. Alfonso Soriano is the top option here, and Johnny Damon and Derrek Lee have shots at hitting 20 steals, but that's all. Carlos Guillen will chip in 10-15, but Uggla (a premier SB position) provides none. A lot of teams will get 8-12 from a variety of positions to give them an overall boost- this team has a lot of guys that won't reach 4.
10. Wolf. The aforementioned slap hitters Freel and Tavares buoy this whole category, but are they enough? Scotty Pods is on the bench and he can run, but his inclusion in the lineup would take out a far superior player like Dye, Swisher or Thome.
On-Base Average
(This is where the projecting gets a little tricky- as I couldn't find a fair way to weigh the players on a team. Therefore, Barry Bonds' .440 in 375 ABs counts the same as Juan Pierre's 325 in 700.)
1. Gieryna. Bonds sets the team apart. Besides him, however, there are three others (Howard, Cabrera and Manny) who should be over the .400 mark. Reyes/Crawford, while improved, are the anchors here.
2. Wolf. Helton and Thome are the pacesetters, while no one sticks out as a weakness. People will praise Nick Swisher for his on-base skills because he's an Athletic, but in reality his OBA is only really good when compared to his Batting Average. His on-base skills are about 20 points above league average, but he's not technically a stud in the last column.
3. Brendel. Torii Hunter is the anchor (in a bad way) here, but benchmate Brian Giles excels in this area. If Giles gets some PT with Figgins out or when Hunter gets hurt, it'll give a nice oba boost to Baron.
4. Schillinger. Pat Burrell is the suprise guy here, a guy who's on base at a 38% clip. There isn't really anyone in the lineup now that will weigh down the team, unless Craig Monroe is forced into action.
5. Radcliffe. Soriano is terrible here, but his other categories make up for it. Dan Uggla and Johnny Estrada also weigh down what is otherwise a very good on-base team.
6. Whitlock. Delmon Young and Hanley Ramirez didn't walk into the major leagues. No one figures to be above .400, though Atkins and Jeter will be in the upper quarter of .300.
7. Tomke. Bobby Abreu is the sole outlier in the linuep. Another category where Frank Thomas provides a tremendous leap- could mean up to 5 net points added to the oba over Kendrick.
8. Souzek. As mentioned earlier, had to get steals at the expense of getting on base, as Patterson and Philips are murder in this category. Bill Hall isn't too useful here either.
9. Stem. Just one outlier on the positive side won't counter a bunch of below average numbers.
10. Viano. Jeff Francour is pitiful. Joe Crede isn't that good either. Rocco Baldelli is incrementally better than either. Those are hard OBAs to overcome, especially since each of them should be in the lineup every day.
Wins
1. Viano. With as many solid starters that are on this team, Andy's got a head start on the cumulative categories. Jon Garland is a standout in wins despite mixed results each outing.
2. Radcliffe. Roy Halladay, coupled with a rebound from Jake Peavy is the 2nd best 1-2 punch in the league. Injured now Chien-Min Wang and future injured Kelvim Escobar will contribute mightily when healthy.
3. Stem. Chris Carpenter and Derek Lowe play on good teams and get good results. John Smoltz is a wild-card here, as no one seems to know how good the Braves are.
4. Gieryna. Both Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt seem to find their way to a good win total, while Greg Maddux also seems to rack up a mess of wins, no matter what. Adam Loewen needs to add in a few from a dismal Oriole team to push the club into the top third.
5. Souzek. Adam Wainwright is the wild card here, he could get up to 15 wins if the situation allows. Oustide of that, C.C Sabathia will rack them up on an obscenely talented Indian team and Dontrelle Willis is always good in odd numbered years.
6. Brendel. Only six starters hurts the projection, but no one should win less than 12. Scott Kazmir's opportunities to win games is in question.
7. Schillinger. Dan Haren has the potential to move the team upward, and so does Nate Robertson. Oustide of that, there's a lot of 10-11 game winners.
8. Whitlock. I do like Tom Glavine's potential to rack up wins with the Mets, as well as the potential of Mussina and Matsuzaka to do the same on good teams. It's the production (or lackthereof) from Bartolo Colon and Boof Bonser that drag down the total.
9. Tomke. The young Tigers, Bonderman and Verlander, hold the key here. Mark Buerhle looms as a sleeper because of his history and a good team.
10. Wolf. The 1-3 is the best in the league, but waited so long to take a 4th pitcher that question marks John Maine and Tim Hudson sit at the back end of the rotation.
Saves
1. Radcliffe. BJ Ryan is fabulous, and Francisco Cordero is going to be a lot better than someone who lost his job and was traded last year should be. Though Todd Jones has a sweet moustache, he does have a lot of hard throwing youngsters behind him, clamoring for his job. The most solid 1-3 in the league right now, still.
2. Tomke. Assuming JJ Putz is healthy, he'll be a monster. Eric Gagne's injury opens the door for Dave to run out to a lead with Akinori Otsuka on board.
3. Brendel. As long as Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde can keep their jobs and stay out of AAA, this team has three pretty good closers.
4. Viano. Trevor Hoffman and Chris Ray are oustanding. Bob Wickman isn't technically good, but he always ends up getting himself a fair share of saves. As long as Wickman keeps his job, this could be a higher rank for Viano.
5. Stem. Only two full-time closers, but they're both awesome. Johnathon Broxton is going to be closing before the year is over, so Stem could rise up in this category depending on when Broxton is given the job.
6. Schillinger. Jon Papelbon's arm health issues cloud the situation here, but he could be a steal in round seven. Ryan Dempster and Salomon Torres will alternate in the 3rd spot and maybe accumulate a decent number between them.
7. Gieryna. Automatic Rivera is locked in, but the health of Jason Isringhausen and the team arond Octavio Dotel do not bode well for a lofty total.
8. Wolf. Eric Gagne on the DL to start the season doesn't start things out well, and neither does Joe Borowski's low skill level. Even Takashi Saito, as good as he was last year, was terrible within the division and has a talented young guy breathing down his neck.
9. Souzek. Joe Nathan is the best closer in the league, but Brad Lidge is the shakiest. Even though Mike Gonzalez is a superior baseball player to Bob Wickman, the sv opps aren't there...yet.
10. Whitlock. Armando Benitez is a constant health risk and Jorge Julio isn't a good pitcher. The opportunities should be there, but the talent isn't.
Strikeouts
1. Souzek. Roger Clemens projections isn't particularly high, but his late season signing could push Lincoln to #1.
2. Radcliffe. Roy Halladay doesn't strike out as many guys as you may remember, but Jake Peavy's Ks are amazing. Chris Young should also have a good K/9, and so will Escobar. Wang is hilariously bad a striking guys out, and that brings JR down to third.
3. Viano. Felix Hernandez should own this category, while Aaron Harang is also a big time K pitcher. Scott Olsen will chip in around the 180 mark and a healthy Rich Harden would be a monster as well.
4. Gieryna. Bronson Arroyo (really) and Brett Myers are quite good here. I don't like that the numbers placed this team so low, but I can't rationally move them up.
5. Brendel. Matt Cain, Scott Kazmir and John Lackey are all lights out in this category, and Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde both get Ks out of the bullpen.
6. Schillinger. Johan Santana should lead the league, and Rich Hill has an outside shot at 200. Javy Vasquez is a wild card in terms of the ratios, but his strikeouts are always there.
7. Stem. John Smoltz and Chris Carpenter will throw a lot of innings and accumulate a lot of Ks. The reason Stem may move up is that Billy Wagner and Johnathon Broxton in the pen will contribute 1-2 every time they pitch.
8. Wolf. Though Hamels and Zambrano should both have over 200 strikouts, there isn't enough support down the rotation to reach a loft level.
9. Whitlock. The two Red Socks, Matsuzaka and Beckett, will do a nice job here, but Tom Glavine is a strikeout wasteland.
10. Tomke. Randy Johnson isn't nearly as effective as he used to be here, and Mark Buerhle is just about useless in strikeouts.
Unlike OBA, I was able to weigh ERA and WHIP so that the values of a SP would be approxiamately 3x that of a reliever.
ERA
1. Souzek. The spreadsheet loves CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Adam Wainwright's youth could lead to fluctuations here.
2. Brendel. All the arms here have the ability to avoid disasterous starts which can pollute a solid ERA. Andy Pettite looms as a sleeper to have a very solid year.
3. Stem. Almost every starter projects to have an ERA under 4.00, and everyone in the bullpen will be under 3.00. It's a very dependable staff.
4. Radcliffe. I don't like the forcast for Capuano or Contreras this season, as they could get rocked at any time. Wang's lack of strikeouts leaves him vulnerable to big innings because of how many balls get put into play. I'm talking an awful lot about a guy who's out for a month. No more Wang!
5. Schillinger. The ERAs of Hill, Vasquez and Ian Snell will almost certainly creep above 4.00, making this a middling stat category.
6. Gieryna. The need to fill an entire staff from rounds 2 on, you get left with a lot of high ERA guys. Maddux, Loewen and Lilly should all be a healthy margin above 4.
7. Viano. With a lot of starters, you're going to see your ERA rise. Garland, Jeff Francis and Scott Olsen could all see theirs climb above 4, while Ben Sheets is the only one assured of a sub-3.50 mark.
8. Wolf. Again, numbers 4-6 could get shelled pretty frequently, and Carlos Zambrano is playing with fire with all the walks and fly balls.
9. Tomke. Randy Johnson, Buehrle, and Chuck James will all have inflated ERAs.
10. Whitlock. Josh Beckett's ERA soars because he lets up so many home runs. Mike Mussina, though good, will face some nasty AL East lineups. So will Dice-K and Beckett for that matter.
WHIP
1. Viano. Sheets is a maniac here, with an amazing 8:1 K/BB ratio. Three solid relievers help keep the WHIP down.
2. Radcliffe. Halladay and BJ Ryan's benefit from the exchange rate, as both of their WHIPs should hover around 1.00. That fuels this category.
3. Schillinger. Santana is a monster, and the rest of the team has good control. Both Huston Street and Jon Papelbon will have good ratios as well.
4. Brendel. Known Assbag Curt Schilling holds down this category because of his impeccable control. Matt Cain is set for a breakout and this is a category he'll do well in.
5. Tomke. The relievers are stellar in this category, giving a huge boost. Justin Verlander is is also good at keeping players off base.
6. Souzek. Joe Nathan is amazing, but Erik Bedard needs to work on his control. Dontrelle Willis had a bad whip trend started last year.
7. Stem. Despite the great ERA guys, but Anibal Sanchez and Ervin Santana allow a good amount of baserunners. Hopefully the defense behind those two can stay good so the ERAs remain low.
8. Gieryna. This goes along with having two shaky relievers. Other aforementioned starters will allow some baserunners.
9. Wolf. Carlos Zambrano does walk a lot of guys, and the WHIPs of John Maine and Kei Igawa will certainly flucuate and more than likely rise through the season.
10. Whitlock. Benitez and Julio will hurt this category, and so will a guy like Bonser.
Runs:
1. Schillinger. This hinges on how quickly Rafael Furcal gets back onto the field, but still has six guys that should cross 100 times.
2. Gieryna. If Jose Reyes can hold his OBA gains, he'll be a monster in this category- may lead this league.
3. Wolf. Grady Sizemore led the league in runs scored last year, and is a great start. Victor Martinez provides a boost from the C position. The offenses Michael Young, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome will provide them all with a number of opportunities.
4. Tomke. Speedsters Ichiro and Jimmy Rollins are the main reason for the lofty ranking, and Rickie Weeks has the potential to score 100 runs- and probably would if his team wasn't boring and irrelevant.
5. Brendel. The middle of the pack is just about right, with no overwhelming run scorers but no weaknesses either. Julio Lugo's average offensive ability is where the potential to move up is. If Lugo can take advantage of batting at the top of the Red Sock lineup, he could hit 100 and move Baron up a few slots.
6. Radcliffe. The injury to Carlos Quentin clouds things, as does the effeciency of the Royal offense and it's impact on Mark Teahan. Alfonso Soriano and Johnny Damon are locks for 110+ this season.
7. Whitlock. Derek Jeter is a sure 120 runs or so, while Garrett Atkins and Hanley Ramirez will excel as well. Outside of those three, no one else is a sure thing to cross 90 times this season.
8. Souzek. David Ortiz, Vlad Guererro and Mark Teixeira will set the pace in this category, just like every other one. Vernon Wells and Bill Hall will also fare well.
9. Viano. In my opinion, Viano saw how little offense was really out there in the draft, and shifted his focus to pitching, hence 4 straight arms at one point. As a result, had to fill in the holes with some damaged parts from middling offenses (Baldelli, D. Roberts, F. Lopez) and the runs will reflect that.
10. Stem. Will get punished in this post for having a lot of youngsters who I can't really project. How good will a middle infield of Stephen Drew and Josh Barfield be? I can only be cautious when predicting those two, leading to a low cumulative total.
Home Runs
1. Gieryna. When you have the reigning home run champ, a guy who made a run at 60, that's a start. After that, you have an automatic 40 from Manny and 35 from Beltran and Cabrera each. Barry Bonds' contribution to this category is interesting, and Ian Kinsler's 20 potential knocks is a great advantage as well.
2. Schillinger. Raised up considerably with the Jones/Young deal, adding almost 20 homers to the team total. Watch out for Josh Willingham, who has 25 HR potential this year. Michael Barrett provides a nice boost of maybe 20 from the catcher position.
3. Souzek. Could get 130 from just three players. Bill Hall will probably lead all players with SS eligibility in HRs, which is a great boost. Vernon Wells will make a run at 30 again. Mike Piazza is a wild-card, as his DHing may yield fantastic power numbers from the catcher spot.
4. Brendel. Pushed into the top half because of the addition of Richie Sexson's 30+ HRs from the UTIL spot. Matt Holliday should come close to 40 dingers, while Carlos Delgado and Morgan Ensberg are solid bets for 30.
5. Radcliffe. Derrek Lee is going to come back and have a monster season this year, and when you match him with sluggers like Soriano and Hafner, it's a wonder that JR doesn't move up at all. 75% of the outfield looks like it has a 20 HR ceiling this year, and that brings down the category. Teahan could break that mold, as soon as he's OF eligible.
6. Wolf. Troy Glaus and Jim Thome's health will make the difference in this category. Nick Swisher should probably chip in 30+. Todd Helton is a wild card, and could move the team up two points with a decent season.
7. Stem. Getting Adam Dunn in the first round will offset the hilarious lack of pop from Juan Pierre. Aramis Ramirez are Lance Berkman sure things, but watch out for Adam LaRoche, who quietly knocked out 32 homers last season.
8. Viano. Jason Giambi is the perfect utility player for this team, as his pop is much needed. I'm suprised that a team with a powerful 2B and guys like Konerko and Giambi is so low, but Dave Roberts and his 3 projected homers coupled with Felipe Lopez' move to RFK can really deflate a team.
9. Whitlock. A breakout for Prince Fielder and good health from Gary Sheffield would rocket this team up the board for sure, but this team lacks pop. Keep in mind, 50% of the keepers on this squad were middle infielders.
10. Tomke. Justin Morneau is a lock for 30, and he could get to 35 easily. Carlos Lee is the key here- playing park with a joke of a left field fence he could hit 40 dingers for the first time in his career. Could move up a couple spots if Frank Thomas occupies the UTIL spot over Howie Kendrick. (I simulated lineups based on draft order, hence the Kendrick inclusion over Thomas.)
Runs Batted In
1. Gieryna. Howard, Manny and Cabrera lead the way, of course, but it's the solid RBI "ability" of Raul Ibanez and Brian McCann are what sets the team apart here.
2. Schillinger. Albert Pujols and A-Rod reign supreme, while three other guys should hit the 100 RBI mark.
3. Brendel. Projections of Figgins and Lugo hold back what is an otherwise outstanding run producing core of Holliday, Sexson, Delgado and Matsui. Miguel Tejada will probably lead all SS in RBI, so that's another bonus.
4. Souzek. I still love Mark Teixeira, so I'll go out on a limb and say he leads the league in RBI this year. He's fantastic. Outside of that, Papi, Vlad etc... No suprises here.
5. Viano. Watch for Alex Rios in this category, as he has a shot at 100 this season. Outside of that, keep an eye on Joe Crede and Jeff Francour, who's power numbers need to be there as their combined on-base averages are less than .600.
6. Whitlock. The guys who lack in big time homer numbers do hold their own in RBI- notably Magglio Ordonez and Nick Markakis. Garrett Atkins (who inexplicable hasn't been mentioned yet) is a fabulous person who will surpass 100 RBI.
7. Tomke. Bobby Abreu is the guy to keep an eye on in this category, as he should hit 100 RBI easily with the Yankee lineup as is. Scott Rolen, if healthy, is capable of big RBI numbers as well. If Rolen is healthy, Dave could move into the top 5.
8. Radcliffe. Despite the Hafner/Lee powerhouse, there are a lot of power positions that lack RBI opps, such as Damon and Quentin in the OF. Chipper Jones is no longer the run producer he once was, and 3B is now a big time position for RBI in the league.
9. Wolf. In order to get any steals into the lineup, Drew employs two guys who may not combine for 80 driven in. The lack of pop between Ryan Freel and Willy Tavares weighs down the Wolfman's power categories.
10. Stem. Pierre and Rowand are poor RBI men, and Josh Barfield doesn't project to be a middle of the order guy either. Ramirez is really good, so is Berkman, but it's not enough.
Stolen Bases
1. Tomke. Had a nice start with Ichiro, Abreu and Rollins in the keeper stable, but vaulted to the top by adding Weeks, Crisp and even Kendrick- all of whom should swipe 20+.
2. Gieryna. Didn't really address steals in the draft, allowing Dave to run past him. Still, 120+ coming from Reyes/Crawford, so the extras from Beltran and Kinsler are just a bonus.
3. Souzek. Mike Cameron is the great add to this club, as he's a legitimate threat for 20-20. Korey Patterson and Brandon Phillips will carry this category, and need to have great stealing seasons with their pitiful oba.
4. Brendel. Overcoming Figgins' injury is key- as he's penciled in for 40% of the team's steals right now. Torii Hunter and Julio Lugo should pick up some slack, but if Figgy misses too much time, Baron's headed to the basement.
5. Stem. Juan Pierre's name has come up a lot- but this time it's valid. He's a monster in this category and will account for over half the team's steals, because only Barfield and maybe Rowand are threats to run. Eric Byrnes getting a spot in the lineup would help this category.
6. Schillinger. Went for steals early, as a way of avoiding the guys who can only run. Brian Roberts and the now-injured Rafael Furcal can both steal 30, and they won't kill you anywhere else. David Wright and Jason Bay both run, which is a nice boost.
7. Viano. Like Drew, counting on one specialist to boost this category. Where he differs is that he'll get near 20 apeice from Utley, Rios, Baldelli and Lopez. A lot of guys chip in and make up for a combined zero from Giambi, Konerko and Crede.
8. Whitlock. Entire steal total is based off of keepers- didn't draft a guy that will swipe double digits. Could still compete if HanRam creeps up on 60, but he's got a sophomore slump feel to him.
9. Radcliffe. Alfonso Soriano is the top option here, and Johnny Damon and Derrek Lee have shots at hitting 20 steals, but that's all. Carlos Guillen will chip in 10-15, but Uggla (a premier SB position) provides none. A lot of teams will get 8-12 from a variety of positions to give them an overall boost- this team has a lot of guys that won't reach 4.
10. Wolf. The aforementioned slap hitters Freel and Tavares buoy this whole category, but are they enough? Scotty Pods is on the bench and he can run, but his inclusion in the lineup would take out a far superior player like Dye, Swisher or Thome.
On-Base Average
(This is where the projecting gets a little tricky- as I couldn't find a fair way to weigh the players on a team. Therefore, Barry Bonds' .440 in 375 ABs counts the same as Juan Pierre's 325 in 700.)
1. Gieryna. Bonds sets the team apart. Besides him, however, there are three others (Howard, Cabrera and Manny) who should be over the .400 mark. Reyes/Crawford, while improved, are the anchors here.
2. Wolf. Helton and Thome are the pacesetters, while no one sticks out as a weakness. People will praise Nick Swisher for his on-base skills because he's an Athletic, but in reality his OBA is only really good when compared to his Batting Average. His on-base skills are about 20 points above league average, but he's not technically a stud in the last column.
3. Brendel. Torii Hunter is the anchor (in a bad way) here, but benchmate Brian Giles excels in this area. If Giles gets some PT with Figgins out or when Hunter gets hurt, it'll give a nice oba boost to Baron.
4. Schillinger. Pat Burrell is the suprise guy here, a guy who's on base at a 38% clip. There isn't really anyone in the lineup now that will weigh down the team, unless Craig Monroe is forced into action.
5. Radcliffe. Soriano is terrible here, but his other categories make up for it. Dan Uggla and Johnny Estrada also weigh down what is otherwise a very good on-base team.
6. Whitlock. Delmon Young and Hanley Ramirez didn't walk into the major leagues. No one figures to be above .400, though Atkins and Jeter will be in the upper quarter of .300.
7. Tomke. Bobby Abreu is the sole outlier in the linuep. Another category where Frank Thomas provides a tremendous leap- could mean up to 5 net points added to the oba over Kendrick.
8. Souzek. As mentioned earlier, had to get steals at the expense of getting on base, as Patterson and Philips are murder in this category. Bill Hall isn't too useful here either.
9. Stem. Just one outlier on the positive side won't counter a bunch of below average numbers.
10. Viano. Jeff Francour is pitiful. Joe Crede isn't that good either. Rocco Baldelli is incrementally better than either. Those are hard OBAs to overcome, especially since each of them should be in the lineup every day.
Wins
1. Viano. With as many solid starters that are on this team, Andy's got a head start on the cumulative categories. Jon Garland is a standout in wins despite mixed results each outing.
2. Radcliffe. Roy Halladay, coupled with a rebound from Jake Peavy is the 2nd best 1-2 punch in the league. Injured now Chien-Min Wang and future injured Kelvim Escobar will contribute mightily when healthy.
3. Stem. Chris Carpenter and Derek Lowe play on good teams and get good results. John Smoltz is a wild-card here, as no one seems to know how good the Braves are.
4. Gieryna. Both Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt seem to find their way to a good win total, while Greg Maddux also seems to rack up a mess of wins, no matter what. Adam Loewen needs to add in a few from a dismal Oriole team to push the club into the top third.
5. Souzek. Adam Wainwright is the wild card here, he could get up to 15 wins if the situation allows. Oustide of that, C.C Sabathia will rack them up on an obscenely talented Indian team and Dontrelle Willis is always good in odd numbered years.
6. Brendel. Only six starters hurts the projection, but no one should win less than 12. Scott Kazmir's opportunities to win games is in question.
7. Schillinger. Dan Haren has the potential to move the team upward, and so does Nate Robertson. Oustide of that, there's a lot of 10-11 game winners.
8. Whitlock. I do like Tom Glavine's potential to rack up wins with the Mets, as well as the potential of Mussina and Matsuzaka to do the same on good teams. It's the production (or lackthereof) from Bartolo Colon and Boof Bonser that drag down the total.
9. Tomke. The young Tigers, Bonderman and Verlander, hold the key here. Mark Buerhle looms as a sleeper because of his history and a good team.
10. Wolf. The 1-3 is the best in the league, but waited so long to take a 4th pitcher that question marks John Maine and Tim Hudson sit at the back end of the rotation.
Saves
1. Radcliffe. BJ Ryan is fabulous, and Francisco Cordero is going to be a lot better than someone who lost his job and was traded last year should be. Though Todd Jones has a sweet moustache, he does have a lot of hard throwing youngsters behind him, clamoring for his job. The most solid 1-3 in the league right now, still.
2. Tomke. Assuming JJ Putz is healthy, he'll be a monster. Eric Gagne's injury opens the door for Dave to run out to a lead with Akinori Otsuka on board.
3. Brendel. As long as Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde can keep their jobs and stay out of AAA, this team has three pretty good closers.
4. Viano. Trevor Hoffman and Chris Ray are oustanding. Bob Wickman isn't technically good, but he always ends up getting himself a fair share of saves. As long as Wickman keeps his job, this could be a higher rank for Viano.
5. Stem. Only two full-time closers, but they're both awesome. Johnathon Broxton is going to be closing before the year is over, so Stem could rise up in this category depending on when Broxton is given the job.
6. Schillinger. Jon Papelbon's arm health issues cloud the situation here, but he could be a steal in round seven. Ryan Dempster and Salomon Torres will alternate in the 3rd spot and maybe accumulate a decent number between them.
7. Gieryna. Automatic Rivera is locked in, but the health of Jason Isringhausen and the team arond Octavio Dotel do not bode well for a lofty total.
8. Wolf. Eric Gagne on the DL to start the season doesn't start things out well, and neither does Joe Borowski's low skill level. Even Takashi Saito, as good as he was last year, was terrible within the division and has a talented young guy breathing down his neck.
9. Souzek. Joe Nathan is the best closer in the league, but Brad Lidge is the shakiest. Even though Mike Gonzalez is a superior baseball player to Bob Wickman, the sv opps aren't there...yet.
10. Whitlock. Armando Benitez is a constant health risk and Jorge Julio isn't a good pitcher. The opportunities should be there, but the talent isn't.
Strikeouts
1. Souzek. Roger Clemens projections isn't particularly high, but his late season signing could push Lincoln to #1.
2. Radcliffe. Roy Halladay doesn't strike out as many guys as you may remember, but Jake Peavy's Ks are amazing. Chris Young should also have a good K/9, and so will Escobar. Wang is hilariously bad a striking guys out, and that brings JR down to third.
3. Viano. Felix Hernandez should own this category, while Aaron Harang is also a big time K pitcher. Scott Olsen will chip in around the 180 mark and a healthy Rich Harden would be a monster as well.
4. Gieryna. Bronson Arroyo (really) and Brett Myers are quite good here. I don't like that the numbers placed this team so low, but I can't rationally move them up.
5. Brendel. Matt Cain, Scott Kazmir and John Lackey are all lights out in this category, and Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde both get Ks out of the bullpen.
6. Schillinger. Johan Santana should lead the league, and Rich Hill has an outside shot at 200. Javy Vasquez is a wild card in terms of the ratios, but his strikeouts are always there.
7. Stem. John Smoltz and Chris Carpenter will throw a lot of innings and accumulate a lot of Ks. The reason Stem may move up is that Billy Wagner and Johnathon Broxton in the pen will contribute 1-2 every time they pitch.
8. Wolf. Though Hamels and Zambrano should both have over 200 strikouts, there isn't enough support down the rotation to reach a loft level.
9. Whitlock. The two Red Socks, Matsuzaka and Beckett, will do a nice job here, but Tom Glavine is a strikeout wasteland.
10. Tomke. Randy Johnson isn't nearly as effective as he used to be here, and Mark Buerhle is just about useless in strikeouts.
Unlike OBA, I was able to weigh ERA and WHIP so that the values of a SP would be approxiamately 3x that of a reliever.
ERA
1. Souzek. The spreadsheet loves CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Adam Wainwright's youth could lead to fluctuations here.
2. Brendel. All the arms here have the ability to avoid disasterous starts which can pollute a solid ERA. Andy Pettite looms as a sleeper to have a very solid year.
3. Stem. Almost every starter projects to have an ERA under 4.00, and everyone in the bullpen will be under 3.00. It's a very dependable staff.
4. Radcliffe. I don't like the forcast for Capuano or Contreras this season, as they could get rocked at any time. Wang's lack of strikeouts leaves him vulnerable to big innings because of how many balls get put into play. I'm talking an awful lot about a guy who's out for a month. No more Wang!
5. Schillinger. The ERAs of Hill, Vasquez and Ian Snell will almost certainly creep above 4.00, making this a middling stat category.
6. Gieryna. The need to fill an entire staff from rounds 2 on, you get left with a lot of high ERA guys. Maddux, Loewen and Lilly should all be a healthy margin above 4.
7. Viano. With a lot of starters, you're going to see your ERA rise. Garland, Jeff Francis and Scott Olsen could all see theirs climb above 4, while Ben Sheets is the only one assured of a sub-3.50 mark.
8. Wolf. Again, numbers 4-6 could get shelled pretty frequently, and Carlos Zambrano is playing with fire with all the walks and fly balls.
9. Tomke. Randy Johnson, Buehrle, and Chuck James will all have inflated ERAs.
10. Whitlock. Josh Beckett's ERA soars because he lets up so many home runs. Mike Mussina, though good, will face some nasty AL East lineups. So will Dice-K and Beckett for that matter.
WHIP
1. Viano. Sheets is a maniac here, with an amazing 8:1 K/BB ratio. Three solid relievers help keep the WHIP down.
2. Radcliffe. Halladay and BJ Ryan's benefit from the exchange rate, as both of their WHIPs should hover around 1.00. That fuels this category.
3. Schillinger. Santana is a monster, and the rest of the team has good control. Both Huston Street and Jon Papelbon will have good ratios as well.
4. Brendel. Known Assbag Curt Schilling holds down this category because of his impeccable control. Matt Cain is set for a breakout and this is a category he'll do well in.
5. Tomke. The relievers are stellar in this category, giving a huge boost. Justin Verlander is is also good at keeping players off base.
6. Souzek. Joe Nathan is amazing, but Erik Bedard needs to work on his control. Dontrelle Willis had a bad whip trend started last year.
7. Stem. Despite the great ERA guys, but Anibal Sanchez and Ervin Santana allow a good amount of baserunners. Hopefully the defense behind those two can stay good so the ERAs remain low.
8. Gieryna. This goes along with having two shaky relievers. Other aforementioned starters will allow some baserunners.
9. Wolf. Carlos Zambrano does walk a lot of guys, and the WHIPs of John Maine and Kei Igawa will certainly flucuate and more than likely rise through the season.
10. Whitlock. Benitez and Julio will hurt this category, and so will a guy like Bonser.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Basketball Playoff Preview
#4 Thursdays with Morris vs. #5 Father Abraham
The two teams each won a meeting in the season series, and their week 10 matchup was a tie. The season series was tied 13-13-1.
News and Notes, TWM
Team is in it's best shape of the year, after losing a number of stars to injury at various points of the season. LeBron James and Chris Paul are playing out of their mind right now. Corey Maggette and Brandon Roy have developed into solid contributers down the stretch, and a now-healthy TJ Ford is contributing as well. Matt Carroll has continued to benefit from a banged up Bobcats lineup with increased PT. The Mavericks, Terry and Howard, while great, have to be a concern in the playoffs with Dallas' impending clinch. Team is healthy.
News and Notes, FA
Despite an 8-1 win over Big Tuna in week 20, stumbled into the playoffs via a 2-6-1 defeat at the hands of Cellar Dwellars. The Milwaukee Bucks have a loaded playoff schedule, and FA has three of them on the roster, though Mo Williams has gotten progressively less productive since the return of Michael Redd. Amare Stoudamire and Andre Igudola are playing extremely well this season, while Redd is still a scoring machine. The play of Dwight Howard has slipped of late, but he's still a solid bet for a double double almost every playoff game.
Total Games Advantage: Even
Tale of the Tape
FG%: The top two shooting teams take the court here. No one on Viano's squad shoots worse than 41%, whereas Jamaal Tinsley is the 39% outlier for Souzek. Advantage: None
FT%: Matt Carroll shoots a stellar 91%, leading seven Morris' above 80%. Ben Wallace is just an albatross in this category. Advantage: Viano
3PTM: Michael Redd and Shane Battier make 2 per game, with Tim Thomas able to hit from distance in streaks. Jason Terry is the only standout for Viano. Advantage: Souzek
PTS: Just about everyone on Andy's team can score. Souzek has at least two guys who sturggle to get into double digits. LeBron James is liable to go off and score 40+ any night. Advantage: Viano
OREB: Despite their FT deficiencies, Ben Wallace and Dwight Howard are phenomonal rebounders. They have a slight edge over Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer. Amare Stoudamire breaks the tie. Advantage: Souzek
DREB: Really there's no major difference between the oreb numbers and dreb numbers. Advantage: Souzek
AST: TJ Ford and Chris Paul are playing at an extremely high level and are elite assist men. Mo Williams and Jamaal Tinsley are good, but don't measure up. Advantage: Viano
STL: Andre Igudola is a premier steals guy in the league, but his pace is about the same as Chris Paul's. With the top guys about even, LeBron's abilities break the tie. Advantage: Viano
BLK: Despite owning just one consistent shot blocker, Viano won 12 of his 21 games in blocks this year. Howard, Wallace and Stoudamire won't let that happen this game. Advantage: Souzek
#3 Big Tuna vs. #6 Slippery When Wet
After a tie in their first meeting, Big Tuna swept the second meeting. Drew won the season series 13-4.
News and Notes, BT
Despite the volaility of Ron Artest, this is a stable and consistent team, led by stable and consistent Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan. After missing the first two months of the season, Pau Gasol has been a top-15 player for most of the season. Leandro Barbosa has been a fantastic waiver pickup, as the 6th man can both fill it up and dish it out. Acquired steady Kirk Hinrich for the stretch run as well. The weak spots on this team can all rebound; Dampier, Haslem and Kaman.
News and Notes, SWW
Had to cut ties with David Lee, which hurts former rebounding advantage. To make up for it, has Al Jefferson who is playing amazing right now. His Pistons are slumping, but both Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups have a solid track record and can thus be relied on from this point forward. Gilbert Arenas, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony have the perimeter on lockdown. Is similar to 1st round opponent in a number of ways; both teams were very timid when it came to making moves this year, and both are built around height.
Total Games Advantage: Wolfman +3
FG%: Shaq and Eddy Curry both make a ton of their shots, and while it's not a deficient category for Drew, Baron just has an edge. Advantage: Baron
FT%: Even though Shaq's incredible fantasy mediocrity is furthered along by his miserable FT%, Chauncey Billups and Gilbert Arenas shoot in the upper 80s. Advantage: Baron
3PTM: Gilbert Arenas is the top three point man in the VUFSA, while now healthy Antawn Jamison and Paul Pierce pad the total. Wolfman competes here, but Mike Miller, Rafer Alston and Leandro Barbosa fall short. Advantage: Baron
PTS: Pierce, Arenas and Anthony give Baron not only the consistent edge, but the potential for explosion, something Drew's leading scorers Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol do not give. Advantage: Baron
OREB: Al Jefferson and Zydraunas Ilgauskas both grab more than three oreb per game, but Drew counters with 6 players over two per game. Advantage: Drew
DREB: This is where KG, Duncan and Gasol really make the difference, just overpowering teams with superior size. Advantage: Drew
AST: Even though Drew doesn't have an elite assist guy, Baron's assists are just dreadful. Advantage: Drew
STL: Ron Artest and Rafer Alston are elite, while Barbosa, Hinrich, Garnett and Ricky Davis can all get at least one additional per game. Advantage: Drew
BLK: Despite having six centers on the roster, Baron has three big men who are dreadful defensively. Duncan, Gasol and KG reign here as well. Advantage: Drew
The two teams each won a meeting in the season series, and their week 10 matchup was a tie. The season series was tied 13-13-1.
News and Notes, TWM
Team is in it's best shape of the year, after losing a number of stars to injury at various points of the season. LeBron James and Chris Paul are playing out of their mind right now. Corey Maggette and Brandon Roy have developed into solid contributers down the stretch, and a now-healthy TJ Ford is contributing as well. Matt Carroll has continued to benefit from a banged up Bobcats lineup with increased PT. The Mavericks, Terry and Howard, while great, have to be a concern in the playoffs with Dallas' impending clinch. Team is healthy.
News and Notes, FA
Despite an 8-1 win over Big Tuna in week 20, stumbled into the playoffs via a 2-6-1 defeat at the hands of Cellar Dwellars. The Milwaukee Bucks have a loaded playoff schedule, and FA has three of them on the roster, though Mo Williams has gotten progressively less productive since the return of Michael Redd. Amare Stoudamire and Andre Igudola are playing extremely well this season, while Redd is still a scoring machine. The play of Dwight Howard has slipped of late, but he's still a solid bet for a double double almost every playoff game.
Total Games Advantage: Even
Tale of the Tape
FG%: The top two shooting teams take the court here. No one on Viano's squad shoots worse than 41%, whereas Jamaal Tinsley is the 39% outlier for Souzek. Advantage: None
FT%: Matt Carroll shoots a stellar 91%, leading seven Morris' above 80%. Ben Wallace is just an albatross in this category. Advantage: Viano
3PTM: Michael Redd and Shane Battier make 2 per game, with Tim Thomas able to hit from distance in streaks. Jason Terry is the only standout for Viano. Advantage: Souzek
PTS: Just about everyone on Andy's team can score. Souzek has at least two guys who sturggle to get into double digits. LeBron James is liable to go off and score 40+ any night. Advantage: Viano
OREB: Despite their FT deficiencies, Ben Wallace and Dwight Howard are phenomonal rebounders. They have a slight edge over Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer. Amare Stoudamire breaks the tie. Advantage: Souzek
DREB: Really there's no major difference between the oreb numbers and dreb numbers. Advantage: Souzek
AST: TJ Ford and Chris Paul are playing at an extremely high level and are elite assist men. Mo Williams and Jamaal Tinsley are good, but don't measure up. Advantage: Viano
STL: Andre Igudola is a premier steals guy in the league, but his pace is about the same as Chris Paul's. With the top guys about even, LeBron's abilities break the tie. Advantage: Viano
BLK: Despite owning just one consistent shot blocker, Viano won 12 of his 21 games in blocks this year. Howard, Wallace and Stoudamire won't let that happen this game. Advantage: Souzek
#3 Big Tuna vs. #6 Slippery When Wet
After a tie in their first meeting, Big Tuna swept the second meeting. Drew won the season series 13-4.
News and Notes, BT
Despite the volaility of Ron Artest, this is a stable and consistent team, led by stable and consistent Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan. After missing the first two months of the season, Pau Gasol has been a top-15 player for most of the season. Leandro Barbosa has been a fantastic waiver pickup, as the 6th man can both fill it up and dish it out. Acquired steady Kirk Hinrich for the stretch run as well. The weak spots on this team can all rebound; Dampier, Haslem and Kaman.
News and Notes, SWW
Had to cut ties with David Lee, which hurts former rebounding advantage. To make up for it, has Al Jefferson who is playing amazing right now. His Pistons are slumping, but both Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups have a solid track record and can thus be relied on from this point forward. Gilbert Arenas, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony have the perimeter on lockdown. Is similar to 1st round opponent in a number of ways; both teams were very timid when it came to making moves this year, and both are built around height.
Total Games Advantage: Wolfman +3
FG%: Shaq and Eddy Curry both make a ton of their shots, and while it's not a deficient category for Drew, Baron just has an edge. Advantage: Baron
FT%: Even though Shaq's incredible fantasy mediocrity is furthered along by his miserable FT%, Chauncey Billups and Gilbert Arenas shoot in the upper 80s. Advantage: Baron
3PTM: Gilbert Arenas is the top three point man in the VUFSA, while now healthy Antawn Jamison and Paul Pierce pad the total. Wolfman competes here, but Mike Miller, Rafer Alston and Leandro Barbosa fall short. Advantage: Baron
PTS: Pierce, Arenas and Anthony give Baron not only the consistent edge, but the potential for explosion, something Drew's leading scorers Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol do not give. Advantage: Baron
OREB: Al Jefferson and Zydraunas Ilgauskas both grab more than three oreb per game, but Drew counters with 6 players over two per game. Advantage: Drew
DREB: This is where KG, Duncan and Gasol really make the difference, just overpowering teams with superior size. Advantage: Drew
AST: Even though Drew doesn't have an elite assist guy, Baron's assists are just dreadful. Advantage: Drew
STL: Ron Artest and Rafer Alston are elite, while Barbosa, Hinrich, Garnett and Ricky Davis can all get at least one additional per game. Advantage: Drew
BLK: Despite having six centers on the roster, Baron has three big men who are dreadful defensively. Duncan, Gasol and KG reign here as well. Advantage: Drew
Monday, March 19, 2007
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Round 1 Mock
With the official start on Monday, why not try and get some real speculation and chatter going? Here's my take on Round1:
Tomke: Francisco Rodriguez
-Solid in the OF and not needing a basher at 1B with Justin Morneau coming back, Dave gets the most talented player in the draft and the best closer available without question. Last year's best pitching staff has a great foundation between Bondo and K-Rod.
Baron: Carlos Delgado
-Baron all of a sudden has the first complete infield, and arguably the best. It's not easy to get a consistent powerful vet in a great offense in the draft; Delgado fits all of those criteria
Schillinger: Rafael Furcal
-Will replace the dearly departed Michael Young with another SS who provides good steals for a keeper crew that doesn't really have any.
Viano: Adam Dunn
-Personally, I was stunned to see Dunn get thrown back into the pool, but it could all work out for Viano as he gets the powerful run producer back in the 1st round. With 3 SPs kept, it's going to be offense here.
Lincoln: Hideki Matsui
-A freakish wrist injury is what cost Matsui his season last season- a non-recurring one-time injury shouldn't scare anyone away from Mr. Reliable.
Champ: Daiske Matsuzaka
-Johnny Damon or Gary Sheffield are tempting here with just Delmon Young in the OF, but I think a gamble on Matsuzaka to complement Roy Oswalt is about fitting here. It's a gamble more likely to pay off than bust, in my opinion.
Stem: Johnny Damon
-Balanced player is the safe bet in round 1. Could also go towards a 1B, all depends on which spot (1B or OF) Stem feels Lance Berkman should fill. New Tiger Gary Sheffield lurks.
Wolfman: Paul Konerko
-Agonized over keeping the Sox powerful first baseman, and now gets him back at #8. Well played.
JR: Cole Hamels
-Radcliffe loves stud arms and stud youngsters. Hamels is both, and JR will certainly rub it in our face that he has him.
Gieryna: BJ Ryan
-Probably holding his breath that Hamels falls this far. If he doesn't (and probably shouldn't) Ryan is the best pitcher left on the board, and this is a team that really only needs pitching. Even though I think a SP is more likely, I don't see any that have the same value as Ryan.
Bonus: Round 2
Schillinger: Mark Prior
-You know it's going to happen.
Tomke: Francisco Rodriguez
-Solid in the OF and not needing a basher at 1B with Justin Morneau coming back, Dave gets the most talented player in the draft and the best closer available without question. Last year's best pitching staff has a great foundation between Bondo and K-Rod.
Baron: Carlos Delgado
-Baron all of a sudden has the first complete infield, and arguably the best. It's not easy to get a consistent powerful vet in a great offense in the draft; Delgado fits all of those criteria
Schillinger: Rafael Furcal
-Will replace the dearly departed Michael Young with another SS who provides good steals for a keeper crew that doesn't really have any.
Viano: Adam Dunn
-Personally, I was stunned to see Dunn get thrown back into the pool, but it could all work out for Viano as he gets the powerful run producer back in the 1st round. With 3 SPs kept, it's going to be offense here.
Lincoln: Hideki Matsui
-A freakish wrist injury is what cost Matsui his season last season- a non-recurring one-time injury shouldn't scare anyone away from Mr. Reliable.
Champ: Daiske Matsuzaka
-Johnny Damon or Gary Sheffield are tempting here with just Delmon Young in the OF, but I think a gamble on Matsuzaka to complement Roy Oswalt is about fitting here. It's a gamble more likely to pay off than bust, in my opinion.
Stem: Johnny Damon
-Balanced player is the safe bet in round 1. Could also go towards a 1B, all depends on which spot (1B or OF) Stem feels Lance Berkman should fill. New Tiger Gary Sheffield lurks.
Wolfman: Paul Konerko
-Agonized over keeping the Sox powerful first baseman, and now gets him back at #8. Well played.
JR: Cole Hamels
-Radcliffe loves stud arms and stud youngsters. Hamels is both, and JR will certainly rub it in our face that he has him.
Gieryna: BJ Ryan
-Probably holding his breath that Hamels falls this far. If he doesn't (and probably shouldn't) Ryan is the best pitcher left on the board, and this is a team that really only needs pitching. Even though I think a SP is more likely, I don't see any that have the same value as Ryan.
Bonus: Round 2
Schillinger: Mark Prior
-You know it's going to happen.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Tice's Partyboat: 8-6
If you had to cram Drew Wolf's Fantasy Football acumen into one skull; the one above may be the only one on the planet that could provide sufficient space. Without further ado, let's take a look at the strangest Fantasy Football ride that the league has ever seen, from 0-3 to LEAGUE CHAMPS.
Keepers:
Drew Brees
Edgerrin James
Warrick Dunn
Ruben Droughns
Randy Moss
At the dawn of the season, this was at worst a solid keeper crew. Drew Brees did have the uncertainty of a surgically repaired shoulder to deal with, and a new, supposedly awful team surrounding him. Edgerrin James moved to the desert in an up and coming offense where he could truly be the focal point. Warrick Dunn and Ruben Droughns were shaping up to be the same 1,000 yard type backs that you can rely on for consistent, unspectacular play. Randy Moss had Art Shell in charge of his team. A mixed bag, to say the least.
Despite the fanfare Tomke gave in turning over his keepers, I only actually held onto Reuben Droughns throughout all of 2006. Edgerrin James went from top tier running back to afterthought and as such was a colossal disappointment. Warrick Dunn was about what you would expect from a flex back in that he picked up a bunch of yards but didn't score many touchdowns. Randy Moss is no longer relevant in fantasy or real life and that I've already devoted a sentence to him is a waste. Drew Brees was the border line keeper and yet he was the best of the bunch.
The TPB draft was pretty weak, and it starts from the top.
Round 1: Chris Brown
Round 2: Donald Driver
Round 3a: Alge Crumpler
Round 3b: Trent Green
Round 4: Draft Day Trade
Round 5: Keyshawn Johnson
Round 6: Kevin Curtis
Round 7: Michael Turner
Round 8: Adam Vinateri
Round 9: Marcus Robinson
Round 10: Donnie Edwards
Round 11: Osi Umenyiora
Round 12: Deltha O'Neal
Round 13: JJ Arrington
Round 14: Antwaan Randle El
Round 15: Jermaine Wiggins
A Barlowian-level brain fart put Chris Brown into the first round and into the Wolfman flex spot. He wouldn't start a game this season. Picks 2 and 3 brought great success to the Party Crew, as both Driver and Crumpler were top performers for their positions this season. After that, a whole lot of nothing, which explains the early season trials Drew had to endure.
Pick 1 was Chris Brown and he was a disaster. The turnaround for my season came directly in conjunction with his child raping departure. Pick 2 was Donald Driver and despite my repeated attempts to include him in on various trades, he turned out to be most consistent performer throughout the season. Pick 3 was Alge Crumpler and he played modestly well, though, I dealt him off for nothing in return this season. Pick 4 was Trent Green and I hear he lost his head somewhere at the start of the season. Considering that in my first 4 picks, only Donald Driver played a key role in the playoff push and playoff success, I consider a small miracle.
Keyshawn Johnson was great for a while before reverting back to his norm. After that, it got worse yet. Michael Turner played a bit in the first half of the season, but never seemed to go off when in the TPB lineup. Adam Vinateri was outstanding when he played, but missed time with injury. Couple a lackluster draft with some dreadful keeper performances, and you end up with this:
Week 1, L 116.25-91
Week 2, L 108.25-98.50
Week 3, L 92.75-79.75
The last one really stung. Not only did it drop the team to 0-3 for the second straight season, but it represented the first truly pathetic performance of the season. Despite a win in the team's worst performance to date the following week, it was time for a move.
With Warrick Dunn headed to a bye week, Wolf sent the Falcons RB packing to his week 5 opponent in exchange for youngster DeAngelo Williams and throw-in Maurice Jones-Drew.
With Dunn on Tomke's bench, he could muster only 69 points, allowing Wolf into the win column with a still-less-than-stellar 91.50 point output. Nonetheless, things were improving.
That 34 point swing made the difference between a win and a loss and got me through a dark period early on.
The next week would snap the two game win streak, as Drew posted a season low 71.50 in a 31 point drubbing at the hands of the ChamPeons. At 2-4, the Slumpbusters were on deck. Following a 187 point anomaly the previous week, Eli's charges came in riding high. The guillotine was raised and directly over the neck of Tice's Partyboat when something weird happened: a 120 point explosion. Alge Crumpler went nuts and was helped along by Mike Furrey and Randy Moss, and all of a sudden the season had started to turn.
[A] win over The Slumpbusters was a big deal as Eli had just defeated Madd Skillz with a record setting performance the week before. It had potential to be ugly, but instead it put me in the upper half of the league.
The next week brough both immeasurable pain and joy to Drew as Baron Brendel rolled up a fat 121.75 points on him by Monday night. Drew's 118.50 point Sunday was not enough, but his 4.50 Wednesday certainly was- as Cato June came in late to send TPB into victory. The season had officially turned.
It was at this point that I thought I had a chance to make the playoffs. This was a turning point simply because I stopped selling off players for next season and instead more conservatively made dealings with an eye to this year.
Despite a new lease on life in the league, poor scores awaited Wolf after consecutive 120 point outings. A win in week 9 over a comatose Stem led into a week 10 shellacking and a week 11 reverse Thursday Thunder. Remember when I called Drew's season "strangest Fantasy Football ride that the league has ever seen?" This is why. Within 4 weeks he had both won and lost a game after Wednesday morning. With an average of 82.75 points those three weeks, and a two game losing streak, Drew's season was seemingly about over. Then, all of a sudden, out of nowhere, with no provocation, they woke up. Maurice Jones-Drew and LaDell Betts were among the league's best RB tandems. Michael Vick was playing well. Contributions were coming from all over- and this team just started rolling over the competition. Two 50+ point wins put the Wolfman on the brink of the playoffs if just two things could happen in the season's final: he won and Champ lost.
Despite a valiant effort from Dave Tomke, Drew had a fairly easy win. And on the other field, Madd Skillz was putting the exclamation point on a 13-1 season by rolling up 174.75 points, besting Champ's playoff-worthy 120.50. So many things had to go right to wrap up the season, and every one of them did. Drew was in the playoffs.
Awaiting him in round one was his strongest ally from a week ago, the unstoppable force that was Ed Schillinger's Madd Skillz. SKL cruised through the regular season at 13-1, topped 2000 points and was already the two-time defending champion. It was to be a walk.
All of [my games from week 12 on] were critical, but none of them bigger than the first round playoff [game] against Madd Skillz. Despite my late season surge, I still resembled the Kansas City Chiefs, having to win a bunch of games and have a lot of other stuff happen just to get in. As such, no one, myself included, gave much of a thought to an upset. However, I was a little pissed in the “regular season wrap-up” press conference, two of the owners said that they would rather prepare for next year than put forth the effort to get the fourth seed and an obvious demolishing by Madd Skillz. I maintain it is better to finish fourth and get killed in the playoffs than to not make it at all, despite what the two said. As such, I wanted to win not just for the sake of winning and advancing in the playoffs but also to stick it to those who packed it in as “not being worth it.” My grudge, then, was more against people in the consolation bracket than it was against Edwin, himself.
With the Chargers and Chiefs playing on Sunday Night, and the Bengals on Monday, Wolfman had all afternoon Sunday to roll up a big lead without the pressure from SKLs best players. Roll up a lead they did. It all started on Saturday when Michael Vick went nuts on the Cowboys, putting up an absurd 37 points on the board. It got better for Drew after that. Maurice Jones-Drew had 98 yards and a TD. Laverneus Coles had 12 catches, 144 yards and a TD. LaDell Betts surpassed 100 yards again. When all the dust had settled, the 4 seed had accumulated 142.50 points, a lead who's insurmountability was cemented after Larry Johnson and Antonio Gates took Sunday night off. It was a relaxing Monday for Drew, watching the Bengals Johnson flail around and make no impact on the game. The impossible had happened on two levels: the greatest team in Fantasy Football history was no more, and a team with an 0-3 start and the 7th most points in the league advanced to the Championship game.
While I hate people who are in the game qualifying the game they just played in (ala Boise State now in the so called greatest game ever), I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to say that in our league’s short history, this was the greatest upset to date.
Waiting patiently for TPB was the Andy Viano-led and Peyton Manning-fueled Naj Davenport's Poop. Even though Drew was good, NDP didn't bring their best to the field, and the 110.25 that TPB would register thanks 2 TDs a piece from Jones-Drew and Betts held up for Drew Wolf's first VUFSA title.
A white guy named Mike Furrey led the charge along with Maurice Jones-Drew and true waiver wire pick up of the year Ladell Betts took Tice’s Partyboat the distance. Just looking at those names, an observer at the start of the season would have thought I was playing in the 7-8 game and not the 1-2 one.
On the way to becoming LEAGUE CHAMPS, there had been some great groundwork laid for next season as well.
I’m optimistic. I have lots of young guys on the roster who should be competing for starting time. Maurice Jones-Drew and DeAngelo Williams would do me well to quit sharing carries. Brandon Jacobs needs to be the beast and not the bumbler. Ladell Betts needs Portis to go somewhere far away. And Donald Driver needs Brett Farve to stay in Green Bay. So there are many positive possibilities, but there is not a dominant player in an optimal situation on the keeper roster.
Seeing how well I drafted this year, it may or may not be a blessing in that I have a slew of extra draft picks coming my way in 2007. I will have the #1 overall selection, an extra 5th rounder, and two extra 6th rounders. Ideally, I’d like to make some moves and see some of those picks turn into players or even picks for 2008. But as it stands, I should have my entire roster in place before others have rounded out their wide receivers.
Lastly, a heartfelt congratulations to Drew on an amazing season and an apology to all concerned for my delinquency in writing my
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