The Keeper Dilemma

As a supplement to the top ten surprises and disappointments of the baseball season (see below), I sifted through the current rosters to try and determine the keeper situation for each team. The dilemmas are aplenty in baseball, where each team will get to keep six players, exposing one of them (and almost certainly losing them, if they have value) in the expansion draft.

I Love Matt Murton, being the best team in VUFSA, will most certainly have the toughest calls to make. While Vladimir Guerrero seems like a lock, pretty much everyone else is a tough call, especially considering that "sixth" spot. My suspicion is that his toughest calls will be threefold: which closer to keep (Brad Lidge, Jason Isringhausen or Francisco Rodriguez?), which starter to keep (Chris Carpenter, Pedro Martinez or Jake Peavy?) and which outfielder to keep (Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki or Manny Ramirez?) Even if you choose just one out of those three pools, he still has to determine whether to keep future superstar Joe Mauer, or stick to Miguel Tejada (very likely) and Carlos Delgado (iffy).

My picks right now: Guerrero, Lidge, Peavy, Tejada, Mauer, Bay (exposed)

Madd Skillz, It would be awfully difficult for Ed Schillinger to leave out any of his big three starters: Mark Prior, Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano, but that leaves limited options for position player keeps. Mark Teixeira is certainly likely, since he has the talent of a future MVP, and Schillinger adores Michael Young. So who's No. 6? Carlos Beltran was his first overall choice but hasn't lived up to expectations. Morgan Ensberg had a breakout year. Jose Reyes is one of the most formidable stolen base threats in baseball. Outfielders Gary Sheffield and Carlos Lee are worthy of keeping around and so are Andy Pettitte and closer Joe Nathan.

My picks: Santana, Piror, Zambrano, Teixeira, Young, Ensberg (exposed)

Father Abraham doesn't have the pool that others have in the keeper department, especially if Roger Clemens decides to call it quits after this year. Albert Pujols is a slam dunk, and David Ortiz, also likely to be listed as a 1B, will make a guy like Richie Sexson expendable. Jason Varitek is one of the better catchers out there, and Mariano Rivera is the best closer. Jeff Francoeur and Melvin Mora will probably be the last call.

My picks: Pujols, Ortiz, Clemens, Rivera, Varitek, Mora (exposed)

Embrace a Bald Man also will be leaving bona fide superstars off the keeper list, with just too many close calls to firmly cement at this point. Certainly Miguel Cabrera is a slam dunk, with Derrek Lee not far behind. Keeping both Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay will limit the number of spots to two for the following big four players: Rafael Furcal, Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen and Josh Beckett. Names like Marcus Giles, Travis Hafner, Jorge Cantu, Randy Johnson, Oliver Perez, Chad Cordero and CC Sabathia don't even make that conversation at this point.

My picks: Lee, Cabrera, Furcal, Oswalt, Halladay, Jones (exposed)

Thome's A Pud will be forced to pick between good young pitchers. Alex Rodriguez is a sure thing, and it seems likely that he will keep Ben Sheets and Rich Harden over Zach Duke and Brandon McCarthy, who are a touch less proven. Adam Dunn and Jim Edmonds are probably both worthy of consideration, but breakout players Chase Utley and Jhonny Peralta should also be given a glance. Trevor Hoffmann is also one of the better closers in baseball.

My picks: Rodriguez, Dunn, Edmonds, Sheets, Harden, Hoffman (exposed).

ChamPeons will be relying heavily on players who were disappointments this year due to injury, namely Jim Thome, Eric Gagne and maybe Ken Griffey, Jr. (who wasn't disappointing, but could be again). Derek Jeter and Ivan Rodriguez will get consdieration, and you would think two of his big three pitchers (Dontrelle Willis, Mark Buerhle, Barry Zito) will be kept. Coco Crisp and Adrian Beltre are also potential keepsakes. A.J. Burnett is right there as well.

My picks: Jeter, Willis, Buerhle, Gagne, Thome, Beltre (exposed)

Walgreen's Wolfmen may not have wanted Bartolo Colon when he was dealt a computer snafu during the early rounds of the draft, but the Cy Young candidate joins Bobby Abreu as the most likely keepers for Drew Wolf's crew. John Smoltz, barring his ever-present injury concerns, and Mark Mulder will probably be in a battle for a spot, as will the future at third base (David Wright) versus the present (Chipper Jones). Alfonso Soriano is one of the best offensive second basemen out there and Victor Martinez is one of the best catchers. You wouldn't think Torii Hunter would be in the mix (nor players like Nomar Garciaparra, Felipe Lopez or Denys Baez), but Hunter remains on Wolf's roster despite a year-end injury...meaning he could be kept.

My picks: Soriano, Wright, Abreu, Colon, Martinez, Smoltz (exposed).

Farns Equals Hero will also be looking for bounceback performances after injury, namely those to Jeremy Bonderman, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Bonds and Clint Barmes. The latter probably won't quite make it, with spots sure to be saved for Lance Berkman and Tim Hudson. Guys who could be on the outside looking in: Justin Morneau, Todd Helton, Huston Street, Mark Loretta and Carlos Guillen. Although, now that I've written it, I find it impossible that Helton won't be back to form next year.

My picks: Berkman, Bonds, Ramirez, Bonderman, Hudson, Helton (exposed).