Friday, October 27, 2006

Week 8 Preview

Game of the Week

The Nihilist Marmot vs. The Slumpbusters (+12.5)

There's no way around it; there's not a more legendary matchup in the VUFSA than this one...Eli set another VUFSA record last week, recording the first ever 100+ drop in point total from one week to the next...JR Radcliffe is 12-2 from Weeks 8-14 in his career...Eli Gieryna is 5-9 in that same time frame...Gieryna averages 119 points in week 8, and is 0-2...Radcliffe averages 109.88 in week 8, and is 2-0...Radcliffe and Gieryna are 2-2 lifetime against one another, both of Radcliffe's wins coming in the final week of each of our 2 seasons, propelling him into the playoffs and Gieryna out...Their most recent outing saw Eli put up the 6th highest total in a loss in league history...I apologize to Eli for the pain he likely incurred from the preceding paragraph, but hey- facts are facts.

News and Notes, TNM

Sometimes I wonder if my view on the league is accurate. I feel like ESPN- I'm so caught up in the storylines I deem pertinent, that I don't really understand what my viewers/readers actually see as important. The reason that I bring this up is that I see JR's QB situation as the #1 theme on his team most weeks, and I wonder if I'm constantly hammering home a point that everyone has tired of...Anyway, Rex Grossman makes his TNM debut, providing more upside than any QB JR's had on his roster since week 1. Grossman gets a juicy matchup in his first game, and a chance to reestablish himself as an every week QB option. He came over at the relatively low price of Antonio Bryant, a saavy move by JR...Travis Henry returns from his bye week as sparkling a flex option as the league has to offer this week, taking on Houston. I overlooked him during my midpoint awards post...The strongest WR corp in the league is not so sexy this week- with the Colts taking on a stingy Denver Defense, and Darrell Jackson's productivity tied to the arm of Seneca Wallace...Key Byes: None...Key Injuries: None

News and Notes, SLM

The second straight bad bye week for SLM is even worse than the first. 2 RBs and 2 WRs are out of the lineup, and though there is adequate depth to fill the spots comfortably, it's a very noticeable drop...Welcome to Wali World, round 2. Baron and I have talked about the hollow sense of accomplishment that one gets when you draft a player, and then watch him have success on another team when you didn't have a spot for him. Baron moaned about Matt Cain's late season surge, and I feel the same way about Wali Lundy and even Philip Rivers...Lundy played great against the Jags last week, but that Houston team is so unpredictable that it will be hard to get a week-in week-out effort from him...The Rams have a very tough matchup against San Diego, although the Chiefs' struggling offense had a great day against the Chargers last week...Tatum Bell on the other end, should run wild against a pourous Indy run D...Erased the famous QB depth from earlier, dealing off Michael Vick with a 5th rounder for the potential and recent production of Randy Moss...Key Byes: Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Santana Moss, Roy Williams

On Deck

Naj Davenport's Poop vs. Who is Ron Mexico (+5)

NDP comes in with a 4 game winning streak, and has hit 100+ in 6 straight- both streaks longest in the league...Did you know that Champ is the only owner in the league not to have beaten Dave twice in their career? That's tough considering he's only played in 21 contests...On the other side, Champ is the only owner with a winning record against Viano through 2 years...Week 7 is the latest any team has gone into a season before recording their first win, congrats Dave...Viano is 2-0 lifetime against Tomke.

News and Notes, NDP

The stable of talented young backs are great to have and hold a lot of leverage for the future and later weeks, but when one of NDP's feature backs go on bye, the talented young'ns represent a crapshoot at RB. Joe Jurevicius is a smart play at flex against the Jets over someone like Jerious Norwood...Temp RB3 Cedric Benson has tremendous potential against the Niners. Benson's been getting increased reps in practice, and the Bears can't wait to get him on the field. A good shot for Ced to score...Peyton has a tough go against Denver, but will it really matter? Peyton may not throw up 30 this week, but he's pretty much assured of at least 15-18 points no matter who the opponent is...I will stop poking fun at Hines Ward now, even if half his points came in one fluky game. The Raiders represent another mouth-watering opportunity for Viano and Ward...Same goes for Willie Parker...Despite their underacheiving and lukewarm stats, there are 6 Cowboy position players that have pretty regular starting spots in the VUFSA- and those players' numbers could be in jeopardy with an inexperienced QB at the Dallas helm. Marion Barber's value is directly tied to touchdowns and goal line touches, and those opportunities may diminish if the 'Boys need a few weeks to get acclimated to the one-time Walter Payton Award Winner...Key Byes: Ronnie Brown...Key Injuries: Greg Jennings (Doubtful), Matt Jones (Questionable)

News and Notes, WIRM

I have a feeling that Dave is pulling our leg with the Tony Romo start. Not that Romo won't be a solid start someday, but he's playing a very good Carolina defense as opposed to proven stud Eli Manning taking on the 27th ranked defense in the league (at home, nonetheless). This is a winnable game for Dave against an elite team, my guess is that he'll play Li'l Eli come Sunday...WIRM has three WRs in the lineup that have very good matchups to exploit; Muhsin Muhammed vs. the 49ers is probably the best looking one right now...The sensational Saints rookies get a dose of the Ravens this week. Honestly, I don't think Reggie Bush does a damn thing on the ground this week, but I can see him having a monster day through the air, as my guess is the Saints will need to check to him more than a few times...I would like to remind you, once again, not to sleep on Kevan Barlow. He scored again last week and the Jets should get the goal line against the Browns...Despite only 2.7 yards per carry against Pittsburgh last week, Warrick Dunn got across the goal line for the second straight game; dispersing the crowd on the Jerious Norwood bandwagon for a week...WIRM isn't the ideal fantasy team for Daunte Culpepper right now (Eli Manning is the keeper QB here), but he was a decent a pickup even though he shouldn't have any trade value this year...Key Byes: Chris Cooley...Key Injuries: Kevan Barlow (Probable)

The 3 Spot


Tice's Partyboat vs. Fresh Legs (-14.5)

Week 8 is the 2nd worst week for the Wolfman, gathering just 93.13 points per week in that stanza...Baron has gone over 100 five times in his career, and has a streak of 2 straight games going now; the second such streak this season...Baron's name appears just once in the entire VUFSA record book, and it's for the 2nd longest all-inclusive losing streak (6 games; week 10, 2005- week 1, 2006)...Drew is 2-0 vs. Brendel all-time.

News and Notes, TPB

Three trades for the Wolfman in 2 days, acquiring 3 picks in the process. Dealt off keeper QB Drew Brees for the awesome power that will be Brandon Jacobs' 2007 season, and picked up a 6th rounder with him. Of course I'm biased, but I love Jacobs' potential and had him under serious keeper consideration before the Hasselbeck injury. At the very least, I feel he would have been a top 3 pick in the redraft next season. It's a running back's league, and while Brees was a nice option, the temptation of taking over Tiki's carries was too big to pass up...Also rid themselves of Randy Moss' inconsistency, and replaced Brees in the deal by getting Vick and a 5th. While I do think Moss has something in the tank somewhere, this is an especially nice deal for Drew, as he might have been happy either a 5th rounder or Vick for the underacheiver...Lastly, Alge Crumpler's hot hand was dealt to this week's opponent, but a 6th rounder for a TE is a move you have to make...This week: good potential in the GB-ARI tilt with Edgerrin James and Donald Driver primed for big points...The corpse of Ruben Droughns has to muster something this season for Drew to move him, and the Jets provide him an opportunity to do so...Does it make anyone else angry that ESPN is pimping the "Keyshawn vs. TO" storyline for the Panthers-Cowboys game? The Cowboys upgraded their talent at WR. It's not TO's fault they let go of Keyshawn. I hate ESPN...Key Byes: Mike Furrey...Key Injuries: Byron Leftwich (Questionable), Kellen Winslow (Questionable)

News and Notes, FL

We should all be as injured as Brian Westbrook. Over 200 yards of offense and a score despite being questionable on the injury report for the Eagles' stud RB. I realized another midpoint omission- I should have given Westbrook more consideration for VUFSA MVP. He's been dreamy for Baron, though it is hard to feel comfortable riding a back with an impending microfracture surgery on his knee...Despite the massive number of flaming papers in FL's lineup, there isn't much reason for concern this week. Westbrook, Ahman Green and Deuce McAllister are all probable and practicing, while Reggie Brown should play. Laverneus Coles is uncertain, but Baron's got some depth at late-game-WR to tide him over if needed...Should Brendel be worried about Thomas Jones? Just 14 total touches in a hideous offensive game vs. Arizona, and Cedric Benson's reps have been increased over the bye week. Baron knew going into the season that he was going to have to face at least one, at most three of his 5 RBs have a youngster breathing down their neck, and it's about that time. Jones needs to have a very efficient showing early against SF in case the game gets out of hand and garbage time comes into play...I always feel like I'm overly critical of Baron. I'm going to do it again, but B, you need to know that I think the world of you as an owner and you're doing a fine job so far this season. Here goes: I think Crumpler is an upgrade over the other 2 TEs on the roster, but I'm not sure that he's enough of an upgrade to justify a mid-round pick. Both Heath Miller and Dallas Clark have potential on any given week, and it's going to become cumbersome holding 3 TEs on a roster when you clearly plan on making one the top guy. What the hell do I know though, I criticized the Carson Palmer deal to no end and carried Drew Bledsoe and Charlie Batch on my roster at the same time...Key Byes: Chris Chambers...Key Injuries: Coles (Q), Westbrook, Green, McAllister, Brown (Probable)

Batting Cleanup


Father Abraham vs. ChamPeons (-9)

Every one of CHM's main offensive players are on the road this week...Week 8 is Lincoln's best week by far; 113 points per game including his all-time high of 137.50 in 2004...Champ is 3-1 vs. Souzek in his career.

News and Notes, FA

The Texans backfield has been awfully unfair to Father Abraham. First, Domanick Davis goes on IR a week after Souzek used the #2 pick in the draft on him. Second, Samkon Gado gets passed over by Wali Lundy (again) after a total of like 7 minutes as the starter. Gary Kubiak hung with shitty Ron Dayne for 4 games but bailed on Samkon after 2 quarters. I had big plans for Gado when I drafted him this year. In a story that is now embarrassing for both of us, I actually tried to swap out Samkon Gado and put Brandon Jacobs in his place during preseason trade talks between Lincoln and I, and it fell apart shortly thereafter. I still have a small spot in my heart for Gado, even if he did go to Liberty University...Thanks to DeJuan, I too have to scratch myself when I look at FA's WRs...Will Leon Washington really emerge as the Jets' number one guy? He reminds me of Warrick Dunn from a fantasy perspective; presumed to be too small to carry every down though he may be ready to do so. They went to the same college, too...Was Jason Witten the worst keeper of this past offseason? The already waived Daunte Culpper may have something to say about that, but Witten has been non-existent for FA most of the year, though he may be on an upswing after a nice game last week...Drew Bennett should have a few opportunities against the Texans...For the sake of Lincoln's sanity, when will the Ravens start Musa Smith? This Jamal Lewis charade has gone on long enough...Key Byes: None...Key Injuries: Davis, but I'm sick of typing he's on IR every week, so this is the last time he'll be listed. You all know he's gone.

News and Notes, CHM

7 of 9 of CHM's main offensive weapons hail from just 3 teams this week. Lot's of pressure on the Texas teams and the Patriots to score...A big decision for Champ this week is made difficult because of what his heart is saying. There's been a skepticism amongst a few owners about how much longer Champ can rely on getting production from 2 RBs on the same team in the starting lineup. That problem is magnified this week as Maroney/Dillon take on the #1 rush defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, VUFSA folk hero Frank Gore is sitting on the bench, presumably because Whitlock wouldn't dare play a RB against the ferocious Bears Defense. What do you do here? Roll the dice on which Pat back is going to get the numbers and throw Gore out there against Chicago or hope that the Patriot offense produces enough so that Brent doesn't have to worry about rooting for anyone against his beloved? It's oddly not that easy of a call. (Actually it is, start Gore and Dillon because Maroney's been worse than mediocre since destroying the Bengals)...Julius Jones was spectacular up until last weeks no-show against the Giants. He'll have another tough go against Carolina this week...Everyone in the world except Tony Dungy can see just how much better Joseph Addai is than Dominic Rhodes. For Champ's sake (sorry Baron) let's hope that Dungy comes to his senses and commits to the rookie soon...I really like the double touchdown potential for Carr and Andre Johnson this week...Key Byes: Randy McMichael, Lee Evans...Key Injuries: Ben Roethlisberger (At least he was wearing a helmet this time)

The 5 Hole


Madd Skillz vs. Cellar Dwellers (+30)

The top two teams of a season ago meet in the 5 hole. A stark contrast to their Week 8 meeting last year that featured a 7-0 Stem vs. a 6-1 Schillinger...Week 8 is the worst for Schillinger, averaging 100.38 in that week through 2 seasons...It's no kinder to Stem, who's getting just 80.25 per game in week 8s...Schillinger is 4-0 vs. Stem lifetime, the most recent battle being a 149.00-100.50 win in the 2005 VUFSA Championship Game.

News and Notes, SKL

After watching Chad Johnson's postgame interview this past week, I honestly put together a theory that there was a direct link between his lack of an impact and the muzzle that Marvin Lewis had put on him. After a 30+ yard gain on 4th-1 inside the 5 yard line last week, he got up and looked defeated. It was like the catch meant nothing to him if he couldn't celebrate it. Sure, it's juvenile to need to bring attention to yourself after every little accomplishment, but I really believe that fun is what fuels Chad. He seems to want to get into the end zone so much more if he's got a big celebration planned. I may be alone on this (since everyone else in our league could hate his antics, but hey, he's my player) but I was beyond thrilled when I saw his media session this week. (linkage in this article here) My favorite lines include: "Hey TJ, you wanna get fined this week? I'll pay it." and asking "I was on the cover [of SI]?" right before a reporter informed Chad that he "had a copy in [his] locker" and another noted that "there's three of them." I may just be buying into a lot of bullshit, but I believe Chad has more to play for when he puts himself on the line like that, and I think he has a big game this week...I can't really look it up, but I believe that last week was the first time a VUFSA team went into a week with 2 starting QBs and left it with none. Matt Hasselbeck's injury became even more important after Shitty Bledsoe's benching, thus the Drew Brees for Brandon Jacobs deal. Brees is a very similar QB to Hasselbeck who will be a steady starter for SKL and should lead to some uncomfortable decisions for Schillinger come playoff time...LaDanaian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson both have exploitable matchups (STL and SEA), while Antonio Gates should have an opportunity to score in his 5th straight game...I'm worried about Terry Glenn...Key Byes: None...Key Injuries: Matt Hasselbeck (Out)

News and Notes, CD

Honestly this is pretty gross. While not there yet, CD is heading back to cellar dwelling at a rapid rate, and injuries are basically the biggest reason. A team that was razor thin last season headed into this campaign the same way, but this year hasn't been as fortunate. Shaun Alexander probably won't and LaMont Jordan might not play this weekend, while Kevin Jones is on bye. Not a good week to miss all three of your keeper running backs...Larry Fitzgerald's injury has pushed luminaries like Ernest Wilford and Eric Moulds into the starting lineup the last few weeks. Moulds may be a decent start against the Titans, while if Donte Stallworth can play this week and stay healthy, we may have seen the last of Wilford...Vernon Haynes has a great matchup against Oakland. I typed that with a straight face, really...Tom Brady represents some pretty heavy Monday Night Thunder, and he could put it in the air 40 times...Key Byes: Kevin Jones, Jon Kitna...Key Injuries: Larry Fitz (D), LaMont Jordan (Q), Shaun Alexander (D), Keenan McCardell (P), Plaxico Burress (P), LJ Smith (Q), Justin Fargas (P). Wow.

3 comments:

Eli said...

Gieryna averages 119 points in week 8, and is 0-2...Radcliffe averages 109.88 in week 8, and is 2-0

Of course.

Flotsam Media said...

Are we really thinking that Randy Moss was worth JUST a fifth-round pick? Here's a look at our recap of the fifth round this year, and the luminaries selected during it:

Round 5
-The round of the TE, and a good spot for them. Three went (C. Cooley, H. Miller, and LJ Smith) and all of them fit in that 2nd tier of tight ends. Good value on all of them.
-Drew Bennett got a much more suitable draft slot this season, compared to last, and his relationship with Billy Volek will make him a potential steal. (edit: I had written this on Monday, before the Kerry Collins signing, which is bad news for Volek, and in turn, Bennett.)
-The other WRs in this round are serviceable WR3s, (Burleson, Jurevicius, Key. Johnson, Bryant, L. Coles).
-The 2nd Backup QB is taken, as Ed gets nice value on Drew Bledsoe who should see a numbers spike if Terrell Owens can survive his terminal hamstring pull.
-1st round without a RB.
-Thank god these are getting shorter

Rd. 5 Recap
Best Pick: Heath Miller. I think he'll come out huge and Mike Ditka loves him.
Best Value: Drew Bledsoe
Worst Pick: Keyshawn Johnson


Nice players, I guess. But other than Coles, no one has had a great year. And who saw that coming? Certainly not me, and my tinfoil hat allows me to see the future.

Edwin said...

How did the drunk guy who eats tinfoil research my blind assertion more than I did?