Sunday, October 15, 2006

When Good Men Do Nothing

I woke up with a question not too long ago: suppose I had done nothing in the VUFSA baseball league? Made no moves, offered no trades, elected to simply dance with the horsies that brung me? To solve this question, I went back to what the teams looked like on draft day and figured out how every team would have fared if they had kept the team they drafted, and the calculations yielded so many holes that it was barely worth doing. But, I had come that far, so I might as well tell you what I figured. There isn't much of a surprise in the conclusion: Eli simply fucking dominates us.

Am I drunk right now?

Let's review the laws and flaws. That rhymed.

1. Given the minimum games played requirement, it is theoretically sound to say one player, assuming he plays all 162 games, will occupy one position all year. Thus, I included players that were first drafted at each position and made according lineups for each team. This included players that were injured, sadly, such as Derrek Lee, Jonny Gomes and your mom, and that skewered results for the superb team that drafted all three of those players.

2. Given that the pitchers are held to minimum innings and not appearances, I included five starters that had the top inning count and three relievers per team, even though many clubs elected to sit on closers and some elected to draft more than three. It's a crude process, one that excludes such pitchers as Pedro Martinez, Scott Kazmir, Ben Sheets and Rich Harden. I realized later that it would have made sense to choose one and not the other -- most at-bats instead of first players drafted or first pitchers drafted instead of most innings. It was an error. Blow me. Drinks. I just couldn't justify forcing Tomke to include losers after he drafted Justin Verlander and Chien Mien-Wang in the final two rounds. I thought he just loved the Tigers and Asians, especially the young, exploitable kind. Turns out he was good at drafting.

3. Injuries greatly skew these results, as I already mentioned. Champ, who only drafted three closers, must use Eric Gagne and his two innings, which hammers his saves but really helps him in ERA and WHIP. Not only that, but I chose to average OBP, ERA and WHIP among those placed on the roster, rather than look up each individual player's numbers to calculate an accurate number. That's someone else's project. Blow me.

4. Since closers and starters obviously don't go the same number of innings, I crudely included three values for each starting pitcher in ERA and WHIP, one for each of the relievers, then divide by 18 (3 for each of five starters and one for each reliever). Obviously, there's so much rounding/averaging here that it's virtually moot. None of this will make sense unless you really, really think about it, so just forget about it.

5. Of course, this project is inherently flawed. Several players, especially catchers, have no prayers of actually lasting a full 162 games and those players get drafted with that understanding. Also, injuries are unforeseeable and players fill those gaps in the meantime. Mainly, I wanted to see who's original architecture worked the best.

6. I may have mis-added numerous times. Sorry bitches. Also, if you're curious to know which rosters I used, you can email me, especially if you think I added shit wrong. I can make corrections.

Runs Home Runs RBIs Stolen Bases OBP Wins Saves Strikeouts ERA WHIP
Eli 884 270 906 163 .382 73 105 1033 3.95 1.26
Andy 873 201 750 113 .360 75 109 1037 3.85 1.24
Drew 906 268 936 136 .374 77 51 770 4.53 1.34
JR 809 195 749 155 .366 79 73 964 3.84 1.25
Baron 865 231 793 133 .362 72 74 976 4.14 1.30
Ed 853 200 793 117 .352 73 106 984 4.14 1.32
Lincoln 817 222 773 93 .362 76 83 968 3.98 1.34
Stem 771 225 812 48 .362 70 65 965 4.02 1.25
Tomke 814 232 871 76 .348 93 64 903 4.16 1.34
Champ 853 206 816 114 .357 60 42 699 4.62 1.23




Runs Home Runs RBIs Stolen Bases OBP Wins Saves Strikeouts ERA WHIP Total
Eli 9 10 9 10 10 4.5 8 9 8 6 83.5
Andy 8 3 2 4 4 6 10 10 9 9 65
Drew 10 9 10 8 8 8 2 2 2 2 61
JR 2 1 1 9 9 9 5 4 10 7.5 57.5
Baron 7 7 4.5 7 6 3 6 7 4.5 5 57
Ed 5.5 1 4.5 6 2 4.5 9 8 4.5 4 50
Lincoln 4 5 3 3 6 7 7 6 7 2 50
Stem 1 6 6 1 6 2 4 5 6 7.5 44.5
Tomke 3 8 8 2 1 10 3 3 3 2 43
Champ 5.5 4 7 5 3 1 1 1 1 10 38.5

3 comments:

Dave Tomke said...

Wow, JR. Wow.

Also, Verlander and Wang are, without a doubt, the best last two round draft picks of all-time.

Eli said...

Nice work, JR. The table looks great.

Anonymous said...

Blow me.