Stats Inc.

The luck index has been updated for the week, with the results starting to even out through the middle:

Andrew Stem +7
Dave Tomke +2
Ed Schillinger +1
Baron Brendel +1
Lincoln Souzek +1
Brent Whitlock +1
Andy Viano 0
JR Radcliffe –2
Eli Gieryna –4
Drew Wolf –7

Again: 3 positive points awarded for being the winner with the fewest points, 2 for the second fewest and 1 for the third fewest. -3 for being the loser with the most points and so on. Naturally, it's a relative scale and will promise greater luck to the teams that keep winning...since their value can only increase. What I find interesting is that Dave Tomke's team is still considered "lucky" for having its one win, and the team has "deserved" to lose every game beyond that. Similarly, my team isn't much worse for wear despite also losing five straight games. The conclusion: both our teams legitimately suck. Meanwhile, Drew Wolf hasn't gained any points since going on a winning streak, meaning that he has every right to his wins and the losses still linger as being terribly unlucky.

I tried to do an "adjusted luck index," with results that I've decided will be more meaningful with more weeks in the season. I laid out everyone in order of their scoring each week, one through ten. If a team wins despite being in the bottom five, I gave them a value based on how far down, three points for ninth place in scoring but still winning, two points for eighth place but still winning and one point for seventh place and still winning. I decided fifth and sixth place were neglibile, since folks ranked there can go either way (win or loss) without "luck" truly taking a toll. Likewise, I assigned negative values for people in the top five (finishing second, third or fourth) and still losing.

There just haven't been enough cases for everyone where they've been on either side with "luck" coming into effect. Lincoln, for example, won his week three matchup despite being ninth overall in scoring, so he gets +3. But in no other week was Lincoln "unlucky" or "lucky" by this scale, so he has the highest mark on the board, simply for one week of good fortune. Only Drew Wolf has been "unlucky" more than once (three times), and only Andy Viano and myself have been both "lucky" and "unlucky" once apiece. So, the index as follows:

Lincoln Souzek +3
Baron Brendel +2
Andy Viano +1
JR Radcliffe +1
Brent Whitlock 0
Ed Schillinger 0
Eli Gieryna 0
Dave Tomke 0
Andrew Stem 0
Drew Wolf –3

Again, I think we need a few more weeks, and a few more inputted values, to make this one remotely effective.

In plotting everyone 1-10, I was able to figure out an average ranking among the ten teams each week, which should be an ultimate indicator of how good a team's record should be.

1. Andrew Stem 3.0
2. Drew Wolf 3.0
3. Ed Schillinger 3.1
4. Eli Gieryna 3.7
5. Andy Viano 6.1
6. Lincoln Souzek 6.4
7. JR Radcliffe 6.6
8. Brent Whitlock 6.7
9. Baron Brendel 7.1
10. Dave Tomke 9.1

Barring injury or other setback, it would be an absolute shock if the top four listed here are not our playoff teams. It would require significant dropoff from those teams' players to fall into the next tier.

Other news and notes:

Andy Viano is the only owner to have both the most points in a given week (week 1) and the fewest in a given week (week 2). Lincoln has come close, having the most points in week 2 and the second-fewest three other times.

Dave Tomke's team is extraordinarly bad. Fewest points five times, second fewest once.

Drew Wolf has had the fourth-most points on four occasions...and he's won only one of those occasions. In fact, the person with the fourth most points has lost five of the seven weeks.

Andrew Stem has had the third most points five different weeks.

In seven weeks, we've had six different owners claim the most points in a given week, with Eli getting the only repeat performance (week 3 and 5). Ed, Stem, Viano, Lincoln and Drew have all had their turn.

No team has finished in the top three in scoring every single week, though Stem has done it six times and Ed has done it five times.

I promise to do a "Top Ten" on the basketball preview results, but not everyone has handed in their poll data, apparently. So do that.