It's time for another statistical post. While not as amusing, entertaining, or well written as a John Clayton (love you) recap, I find the numbers to be equally time worthy. This week I've decided to go with opponent scoring average as the topic at hand. We talk quite a bit about who has the toughest schedule, but what if that dominant team you went up against had 10 players on bye and barely registered a 60? It's not so tough of a scheduling match up now is it? The numbers do not lie, and I am here to point them out to you.
Cellar Dwellers: 9-1
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 3
70s: 1
80s: 2
90s: 1
100s: 3
110+: 0
Opponent Scoring Average: 85.175
Madd Skillz: 8-2
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 3
70s: 1
80s: 2
90s: 1
100s: 1
110+: 2
Opponent Scoring Average: 85.75
Sex Panther: 5-5
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 1
70s:
80s:
90s: 4
100s: 1
110+: 4
Opponents Scoring Average: 103.075
Blaine Browns: 5-5
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 1
70s: 1
80s:
90s: 2
100s: 4
110+: 2
Opponents Scoring Average: 107.425
Fred Lane's Wife: 5-5
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 1
70s: 1
80s: 2
90s: 1
100s: 1
110+: 4
Opponents Scoring Average: 94.95
The Octagon: 5-5
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 1
70s: 2
80s: 1
90s: 3
100s:
110+: 3
Opponents Scoring Average: 100.95
ChamPeons: 5-5
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 1
70s: 1
80s: 1
90s: 2
100s: 1
110+: 4
Opponents Scoring Average: 105.075
Big Fat Guys: 4-6
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below:
70s: 2
80s: 3
90s: 1
100s: 1
110+: 3
Opponent Scoring Average: 100.875
Father Abraham: 3-7
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below:
70s:
80s: 3
90s: 1
100s: 2
110+: 4
Opponent Scoring Average: 108.7
Who is Ron Mexico: 2-8
Opponents have scored in the...
60s or below: 1
70s: 1
80s: 2
90s: 1
100s: 1
110+: 4
Opponent Scoring Average: 106.575
Ranking of Toughest Opponent Scoring Average:
1. Father Abraham 108.7
2. Blaine Browns 107.425
3. Who is Ron Mexico 106.575
4. ChamPeons: 105.075
5. Sex Panther: 103.075
6. The Octagon: 100.95
7. Big Fat Guys: 100.875
8. Fred Lane's Wife: 94.95
9. Madd Skillz: 85.75
10. Cellar Dwellers: 85.175
A few things to make of this. Despite all the crippling injuries, no team has had more points scored against them than Father Abraham who seems to get blasted every time out. Also, it's not too hard to see why the top two teams are the top two teams based upon these statistics.
However, some of these numbers may be a little misleading. The averages themselves flatten out a team getting crushed by a 160 one week and then cake walking against a 40 the next. A team could expect to be 1-1 with opponents averaging 100 points per game. Now another team could face a team that scores 100 the first week and then 100 again the second week. That team is also going to have an average opponent score of 100, but at the same time the team is not guaranteed a 1-1 record and may very well be 0-2. Hence why I tried to break down the number of times an opponent as scored in the various columns. Looking at the numbers a little differently...
The number of times an opponent has scored 100+ against them:
6x
Father Abraham 6x
Blaine Browns 6x
5x
Who is Ron Mexico 5x
ChamPeons 5x
Fred Lane's Wife 5x
Sex Panther 5x
4x
Big Fat Guys 4x
3x
The Octagon 3x
Madd Skillz 3x
Cellar Dwellers 3x
Again, not hard to see why the top two teams are leading the way in the standings, and again Lincoln and I seem to be getting everyone's best game.
Alright, so one more dividing up of the numbers. Who has had the easiest go of it with the most underachieving opponents. Number of times the opponent has scored 70 points or less.
0x
Father Abraham
1x
Sex Panther
2x
Who Is Ron Mexico
Big Fat Guys
ChamPeons
Fred Lane's Wife
Blaine Browns
3x
The Octagon
4x
Madd Skillz
Cellar Dwellers
And so now I will give some subjective thoughts on all of this information that is likely to harbor ill will and death threats. It does make sense that the top two teams would have the lowest opponent averages because they do not play themselves (duh) and therefore their point totals won't reflect a big outing by a first/second place team. With that said, though, people are rolling over for Stem and Ed. Stem has not played an opponent that's scored over 110 points (JR is the high with 107.25). Stem and Skillz combined have had their opponent score over 100 points just 6 times. That's the total that Lincoln has faced all by himself. For both Stem and Skillz, just 60% of the time do their opponents put up over 80 points. For the Gun, an opponent has scored under 90 just once. His opponents have been consistantly tough but do not blow him out with huge 150 plus point numbers. Viano is all over the damn place as his opponents have put 110+ on him four times but he has the third lowest opponent scoring average. Either they put a killing on FLW or they roll over for FLW. As for the elder GMs of the bunch, you guys don't like us much. Be nicer. In conclusion, screw you, Kyle Orton.
3 comments:
So does this post bump Stem's luck index to +45?
In Stem's defense, he has finished in the top 5 in scoring every week except for one, his lone loss. And his average score is 115 points, which means that on any given week, even with Lincoln's schedule, he gets a win.
Sabermetric Eli has a very defined viewpoint on "clutch" players, believing that players cannot be "clutch," but are rather consistently good players who succeed at their normal rate, regardless of the pressure in a certain situation. On the other hand, he will acknowledge that there is an anti-clutch, or "choke" which is to say that players succeed below their normal rate in certain (pressure) situations. In other words, there are no clutch players, only players who choke.
The paralell:
Stem is not "lucky." His team performs at a consistent level every week, regardless of his opponents. His opponents do play poorly, but he has no jurisdiction over that. Eli, on the other hand can be considered "unlucky" in that his opponents perform at a level higher than normal when he is on the slate. That is to say, just because one owner has bad luck, doesn't mean that it has to balance out somewhere.
Not having "bad luck" doesn't mean that that you inherently have "good luck." It just means you have no luck either way. You're just...normal.
Did that make any sense?
The numbers can only tell part of the story. I agree that Stem has put together an impressive team that regularly scores big numbers. If he were winning by 80.0-75.0 margins, then I could consider his success lucky (ie JR early on). However, he has never faced a Sex Panther, Madd Skillz, or FLW posting a 110+ point day and that is fortunate for him. Had he run into one of these stellar performance by an opponent, he may very well still be 9-1. More likely, though, he'd be around 8-2 or 7-3...still a top tier playoff team. Since Stem is consistently good, no one harbors the disgust for his 9-1 record as we did for JR's 2-0 one.
-Drew
Post a Comment