Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Playoff Picture

Despite bringing up the word "playoffs" from literally, week 1- now is the time when we really know some things. In order to make some sense of the next two weekends, here's what we look like:

Madd Skillz (10-2): Has clinched a playoff spot, and a loss by CD last week gives them the inside track for the #1 seed. Hurt the chances of BB with a win last week, and could play spoiler again next week, facing a 7-5 OCT squad. Wraps up the year with a week 14 matchup with darkhorse CHM, but it remains to be seen if CHM will be in the picture come that time.

Cellar Dwellars (9-3): Has also clinched a playoff spot, and a win next week locks up a top-2 seed. Can eliminate CHM from the race with a win next week. Team has lost two in a row but looked solid in both games. Week 14 tilt with FA will be meaningless if CD beats CD in week 13.

Sex Panther (7-5): It's a tough final two weeks, but SP will control, 100% his playoff chances the rest of the way. Just one win in the next two weeks guarantees SP a reservation in the playoffs. Can virtually eliminate BB from the race next week with a win, then may help out BB by beating OCT in the week's final season. Of course, they could lose them both and be left out entirely. That could never happen though, right?

The Octagon (7-5): Has the league's top two scoring teams left on the schedule, but has a one game cushion on the #5 team. It's a nice edge to have, but it's also necessary as OCT will not own a tiebreaker edge over either SP or BB. Is in the awkward position of actually rooting for his closest competitor this week, as a win by SP over BB takes an immense amount of pressure off of OCT. If, however, BB rises up and picks up a win, while OCT falls to SKL, then OCT needs not only a week 14 win, but a clutch performance by Baron Brendel's Carson Palmer All-Stars against BB.

Blaine Browns (6-6): On the outside, on the verge of being the screwed one. Still, can be assured of a spot in the dance with wins in both of their final games. It's not a pleasant situation to be in, but BB still has an awful lot of opportunites to get in. BFG is scheduled for the season finale, a very winnable game. It is very possible that OCT loses both of their final games; in that case a mere win over BFG (and maintenance of the tiebreaker lead) puts the Browns in. It's not a desirable way in, but it'll work. The best possible week for BB is a win in 13, and an OCT loss. That scenario would require two things in week 14 to keep them out: OCT beating SP, and BFG beating BB. Both are possible, neither are for certain. If OCT wins this week, and BB cannot beat SP, it's over.

ChamPeons (6-6): After losing to WIRM, and scoring just 70.50 points in a win in consecutive weeks, CHM was left for dead. A solid win this week, and all of a sudden, they're a couple breaks from the playoffs. They certainly have a tough road, facing 19 combined wins in the coming 2 weeks; but it's possible. CHM has no chance of a tiebreaker over anyone, not even the 5-7 team chasing him. It's all about wins and some help. Here's how CHM gets in. They have to win both games; with a single loss, none of this matters. The three seed is too lofty a goal, so let's focus on getting in at 4. CHM is basically rooting for SP from here on out. If SP wins this week, and SKL beats OCT, CHM would lead BB, and move to a tie (in the standings) with OCT. If Champ's new favorite team (SP) wins again in week 14, OCT loses their 7th and CHM's potential 8-6 record puts them in. If, however, SP loses this week to BB, CHM switches gears and roots for BFG to win in week 14, and begins rooting for OCT to knock SP down to 7 losses that same week.

Fred Lane's Wife (5-7): They have to get a tiebreaker. The most wins they can get is 7, and like CHM, they need to win every game to even be in this talk. A single loss mathematically eliminates them. Either SP or OCT will have at least 8 wins, by virtue of their week 14 game. If CHM falls to either CD or SKL, FLW moves in front of them on tiebreaker grounds. If BB loses to SP this week, they're tied record-wise with them. Therefore, BB would need to lose again in week 14 to prevent the tiebreaker kicking in and kicking FLW out. Since a loss by BB is necessary to FLW's hopes- they have to root for SP this week, and then again in 14. If OCT loses to both SKL and SP, they sit at 7 wins, and FLW needs to make up 11 points in those two weeks to own the tiebreaker over them. To recap: FLW needs a single loss by CHM, and two losses from BB, and two losses from OCT- while scoring 11 more points than OCT the final two weeks. It's a longshot, but it's out there.

Father Abraham, Big Fat Guys and Who is Ron Mexico have all been mathematically eliminated. The Fat Guys, however, can still play a major role in the playoff picture by toying with BB in week 14. FA can impact the fight for the #2 seed in week 14, potentially. WIRM can knock FLW out of contention if they are still in in when the two face off in week 14.

3 comments:

JR said...

Just to clarify, on my capsule:

If BB rises up to beat SP and I lose to Skillz, I can still get in by simply beating SP in week 14, right? A winner-take all matchup in that scenario regardless of how BB does, correct?

Anonymous said...

The best scenario is actually one where I do not make the playoffs. I beat Eli this week, and you lose to Ed as you've presented in your earlier post making us all 7-6. I then get upset by Baron in the last week making me 7-7. Drew Bennett, playing against Houston and getting a start for Eli because of the matchup, catches a touchdown that results in a Sex Panther/Octagon tie. That gets both Sex Panther and Octagon in at 7-6-1. All because of Drew Bennett, again helping JR, and not even on his roster. That would be both the greatest and worst case scenario.

-Drew

JR said...

In any event, the probability of Drew Bennett having a major say in the playoff picture is ... incredibly high.